Table 4.

Forecast of changes in household saving and borrowing rates with one lag of changes in component consumer confidence indicators

		Lag	∆HSRtot		∆HSRvol		∆HBR
			${\overline{R}}^2$	AIC	${\overline{R}}^2$	AIC	${\overline{R}}^2$	AIC
1	∆I1 + ∆I2 + ∆I3 + ∆I4 + ∆I8	t − 1	−0.079	109.58	−0.067	112.74	−0.063	131.69
	Components of Current Consumer Confidence Index		(0.316)		(0.293)		(0.400)
2	∆I1 + ∆I2 + ∆I3 + ∆I4 + ∆I8	t − 2	−0.001	106.09	−0.016	110.43	0.029	127.46
	Components of Current Consumer Confidence Index		(0.151)		(0.222)		(0.205)
3	∆I1 + ∆I2 + ∆I3 + ∆I4 + ∆I8	t − 3	0.056	103.29	0.077	105.91	0.107***	123.54
	Components of Current Consumer Confidence Index		(0.250)		(0.103)		(0.009)
4	∆I1 + ∆I2 + ∆I3 + ∆I4 + ∆I8	t − 4	−0.053	107.22	−0.051	110.74	−0.038	128.73
	Components of Current Consumer Confidence Index		(0.320)		(0.279)		(0.219)
5	∆I2 + ∆I4 + ∆I7 + ∆I11	t − 1	−0.049	107.4	−0.039	110.63	−0.031	129.39
	Components of Forward Consumer Confidence Index		(0.541)		(0.463)		(0.494)
6	∆I2 + ∆I4 + ∆I7 + ∆I11	t − 2	0.008	104.8	−0.010	109.31	0.090**	123.54
	Components of Forward Consumer Confidence Index		(0.135)		(0.148)		(0.029)
7	∆I2 + ∆I4 + ∆I7 + ∆I11	t − 3	0.318***	87.2	0.277***	93.56	0.349***	107.80
	Components of Forward Consumer Confidence Index		(0.000)		(0.000)		(0.000)
8	∆I2 + ∆I4 + ∆I7 + ∆I11	t − 4	0.055*	101.4	0.058**	104.84	0.040**	124.30
	Components of Forward Consumer Confidence Index		(0.066)		(0.031)		(0.015)

The table reports regressions according to Eq. 8. The numbers in parentheses are p values of the joint significance of one lag (specified in column 1) of changes in the component customer confidence indexes. The number of observations (N) is 47 for lags 1–3, and 46 for lag 4. Hypothesis tests were conducted using a heteroskedasticity and serial correlation robust covariance matrix. HSRtot, HSRvol, HBR denote total household saving rate, voluntary household saving rate, household borrowing rate, respectively

* Statistical significance at the 10 % level; ** statistical significance at the 5 % level; *** statistical significance at the 1 % level