Table 3.
BCG and Smallpox Vaccination and HIV-1 in Guinea-Bissau and Denmark: Separate and Combined Estimates
| Smallpox/BCG Vaccinated | Guinea-Bissau (GB) | Denmark (DK) | Combined Estimatee | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % (HIV/All) | Adjusted ORa (95% CI) | IPCW % (HIV/Allb)c | IPCW and Adjusted ORd (95% CI) | GB Weight | DK Weight | Combined Estimate of Adjusted ORs | |
| All | |||||||
| −/− | 6.1% (24/393) | 1 (ref) | 1.6% (16/1011.9) | 1 (ref) | - | - | 1 (ref) |
| +/− | 3.3% (27/808) | 0.72 (0.39–1.33) | 1.5% (6/407.6) | 0.52 (0.17–1.60) | 77% | 23% | 0.67 (0.39–1.14) |
| −/+ | 4.7% (9/191) | 0.50 (0.23–1.10) | 1.5% (22/1511.4) | 0.70 (0.41–1.18) | 31% | 69% | 0.63 (0.41–0.98) |
| +/+ | 4.2% (15/359) | 0.59 (0.28–1.25) | 2.3% (60/2665.7) | 0.74 (0.44–1.26) | 33% | 67% | 0.69 (0.45–1.06) |
| Either or | 3.8% (51/1358) | 0.62 (0.36–1.07) | 1.9% (88/4584.7) | 0.70 (0.43–1.15) | 45% | 55% | 0.66 (0.46–0.96) |
| Women | |||||||
| −/− | 6.9% (17/247) | 1 (ref) | 1.0% (5/492.3) | 1 (ref) | - | - | 1 (ref) |
| +/− | 3.7% (18/490) | 0.64 (0.30–1.36) | 1.0% (2/202.6) | 0.53 (0.12–2.35) | 79% | 21% | 0.61 (0.31–1.21) |
| −/+ | 7.6% (9/119) | 0.73 (0.31–1.71) | 0.6% (4/697.8) | 0.45 (0.13–1.59) | 67% | 33% | 0.62 (0.31–1.26) |
| +/+ | 4.8% (10/208) | 0.56 (0.23–1.36) | 0.7% (10/1353.6) | 0.37 (0.17–0.81) | 44% | 56% | 0.43 (0.25–0.78) |
| Either or | 4.5% (37/817) | 0.63 (0.33–1.21) | 0.7% (16/2254.0) | 0.40 (0.19–0.82) | 56% | 44% | 0.52 (0.32–0.84) |
| Men | |||||||
| −/− | 4.8% (7/146) | 1 (ref) | 2.1% (11/519.5) | 1 (ref) | - | - | 1 (ref) |
| +/− | 2.8% (9/318) | 0.90 (0.32–2.51) | 2.0% (4/204.9) | 0.51 (0.12–2.07) | 66% | 34% | 0.74 (0.32–1.71) |
| −/+ | 0% (0/72) | N/A | 2.2% (18/814.0) | 0.82 (0.48–1.38) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| +/+ | 3.3% (5/151) | 0.62 (0.16–2.37) | 3.8% (50/1311.9) | 0.92 (0.49–1.70) | 18% | 82% | 0.86 (0.49–1.51) |
| Either or | 2.6% (14/541) | 0.60 (0.23–1.55) | 3.1 (72/2330.7) | 0.84 (0.49–1.45) | 24% | 76% | 0.77 (0.48–1.24) |
Abbreviations: BCG, Bacillus Calmette-Guérin; CI, confidence interval; DK, Denmark; GB, Guinea-Bissau; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; IPCW, inverse probability of censoring weighted; NA, nonapplicable; OR, odds ratio; ref, reference group.
aLogistic regression adjusted for year of birth in 10-year intervals, sex, field worker, place of birth, schooling, religion, ethnicity, employment, socioeconomic status, traveled abroad, and lived abroad and stratified by house with robust variance.
bNon-HIV cases are weighted by the inverse probability of being censored during follow up.
cNote the percentages cannot be interpreted as the prevalence of HIV-1, because only a subcohort of the background cohort is included in the denominator, whereas all HIV-1 cases in the background cohort are included in the numerator (an estimation of the prevalence is given in Supplementary Table 1). Because the cohort was sampled by birth year and vaccination coverage decreases with time, the percentage of HIV cases cannot directly be compared among vaccination groups.
dLogistic regression adjusted for family social class, sex, immigration, year of birth and weighted by the inverse probability of being censored during follow-up and with robust variance clustered by birth year and sex.
eThe combined adjusted odds ratios from Denmark and Guinea-Bissau were combined in random effect meta-estimates.