Table 2.

Classification of the models used in this study according to the productivity-disturbances-climate change interaction pathways specified in the conceptual framework shown in figure 1.

Model	Climate change effect on productivity		Climate change effect on disturbances		Disturbance effect on productivity		Productivity effects on disturbance
	Direct (P1)	Indirect (P2)	Direct (P3)	Indirect (P4)	Direct (P5)	Indirect (P6)	Direct (P7)	Indirect (P8)
Monsu	Species- and site-specific scaling of growth functions/site index according to simulations with physiological model	Change in species composition	Na	Probability of wind damage increases by 0.17% per year due to gradual increase of unfrozen soil period	Wind damage reduces forest productivity when windthrown trees are not harvested	Non-optimal harvesting time may reduce forest productivity via effects on forest structure	Na	Changes in dominance of different tree species, stocking (stand density), height and height/diameter ratio of trees.
MOTIVE8	Temperature, precipitation and moisture deficit affect growth	Na	Na	Na	Wind damage before planned harvest date reduces forest productivity	Harvesting before stands reach Maximum Mean Annual Increment to reduce wind risk reduces forest productivity as the full productive potential of the site is never reached	Na	Changes in height growth alter susceptibility to wind damage
ForGEM + mechanical windthrow module based on HWIND	Species- and site-specific scaling of growth functions/site index according to simulations with physiological model	Na	Na	Na	Removal of trees	Effect on forest structure	Na	Changes in height growth alter susceptibility to wind damage
LandClim	Temperature and precipitation affect growth	Change in species composition	Changes in temperature affect the reproduction rate of bark beetles	Bark beetle disturbance susceptibility depends on drought-stress, age and basal area share of Norway spruce as well as the windthrown spruce biomass	Bark beetle disturbance causes tree mortality decreasing forest productivity	Change in species composition	Na	Basal area share of Norway spruce influences bark beetle disturbance susceptibility
PICUS v1.5	Temperature, precipitation, radiation and vapor pressure deficit affect growth	Temperature and precipitation affect tree species composition	Changes in temperature affect the reproductive rate of bark beetles	Bark beetle susceptibility depends on drought stress of host trees as well as host tree availability, basal area, and age	Disturbances reduce leaf area and thus the radiation absorbed, which in turn affects productivity	Change in species composition	Na	Stand structure (age, Norway spruce share) influences bark beetle disturbance susceptibility
GOTILWA + and adjusted fire model	Temperature and precipitation affect growth	Na	Climate change affects the predicted annual fire occurrence probability	Drought-stressed trees are more susceptible to die after fire	Mortality and a temporal (1 to 3 years) decrease in tree growth	Ash fertilization; a ‘thinning from bellow effect’ of fire reducing competition for water	Na	Probability of fire and post-fire mortality are estimated according to the structure of the forest
Glob3PG and management optimization method	Temperature and precipitation affect growth	Na	Climate change leads to 5% decrease in fire return interval and 5% increase in area burnt	Na	Increased fire frequency and increased affected area destroy biomass	Periodical reductions in area productivity due to fire, changes optimum management in each management unit attempting to respect flow constraints	Na	Na