Table 4.
Hazard ratios (HR)† of cancer and mortality in the EPIC-Italy cohort in relation to quintiles of intake of high GI carbohydrate and low GI carbohydrate. (5112 cancers, 2460 deaths, median follow up 14.9 years).
| Cancer | N cases | Carbo-hydrate | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | P trend§ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | ||||
| Tongue | 76 | High GI | 1 | 0.75 | (0.37–1.53) | 0.81 | (0.40–1.64) | 0.66 | (0.31–1.40) | 0.59 | (0.25–1.36) | 0.218 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.59 | (0.77–3.28) | 1.26 | (0.58–2.75) | 0.99 | (0.43–2.30) | 1.60 | (0.74–3.46) | 0.585 | ||
| Stomach | 146 | High GI | 1 | 0.63 | (0.38–1.05) | 0.68 | (0.41–1.14) | 0.61 | (0.36–1.05) | 0.51 | (0.27–0.94) | 0.045 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.18 | (0.69–2.03) | 1.21 | (0.70–2.11) | 1.10 | (0.62–1.94) | 1.36 | (0.78–2.37) | 0.395 | ||
| Colon | 441 | High GI | 1 | 1.02 | (0.74–1.41) | 1.29 | (0.94–1.77) | 1.18 | (0.85–1.66) | 1.71 | (1.19–2.44) | 0.004 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.94 | (0.71–1.25) | 0.86 | (0.64–1.16) | 0.77 | (0.56–1.05) | 0.75 | (0.54–1.03) | 0.032 | ||
| Rectum | 102 | High GI | 1 | 1.27 | (0.72–2.24) | 0.70 | (0.36–1.38) | 0.84 | (0.43–1.62) | 0.66 | (0.31–1.44) | 0.141 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.38 | (0.74–2.56) | 1.37 | (0.73–2.58) | 1.13 | (0.58–2.21) | 0.98 | (0.48–1.99) | 0.774 | ||
| Liver | 70 | High GI | 1 | 0.72 | (0.33–1.60) | 0.88 | (0.40–1.93) | 0.84 | (0.36–1.92) | 1.43 | (0.60–3.37) | 0.441 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.09 | (0.49–2.45) | 1.43 | (0.65–3.15) | 1.40 | (0.62–3.15) | 1.41 | (0.61–3.28) | 0.326 | ||
| Pancreas | 117 | High GI | 1 | 0.83 | (0.48–1.45) | 0.60 | (0.32–1.13) | 0.96 | (0.54–1.72) | 0.75 | (0.38–1.51) | 0.582 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.86 | (1.04–3.32) | 1.67 | (0.91–3.07) | 0.88 | (0.43–1.78) | 1.33 | (0.68–2.57) | 0.732 | ||
| Lung | 307 | High GI | 1 | 0.90 | (0.63–1.29) | 0.80 | (0.55–1.17) | 0.82 | (0.56–1.19) | 0.82 | (0.54–1.25) | 0.304 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.89 | (0.64–1.27) | 0.86 | (0.60–1.24) | 0.84 | (0.58–1.21) | 1.00 | (0.69–1.44) | 0.830 | ||
| Melanoma | 194 | High GI | 1 | 1.56 | (0.98–2.49) | 1.46 | (0.89–2.38) | 1.48 | (0.89–2.47) | 1.63 | (0.95–2.86) | 0.171 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.79 | (0.51–1.22) | 0.83 | (0.54–1.29) | 0.51 | (0.31–0.85) | 0.79 | (0.50–1.25) | 0.118 | ||
| Breast | 1362 | High GI | 1 | 1.05 | (0.88–1.24) | 1.08 | (0.90–1.29) | 1.05 | (0.87–1.27) | 1.11 | (0.90–1.37) | 0.381 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.04 | (0.88–1.24) | 1.07 | (0.89–1.27) | 1.05 | (0.88–1.26) | 1.09 | (0.91–1.31) | 0.401 | ||
| Cervix | 53 | High GI | 1 | 0.90 | (0.37–2.19) | 0.85 | (0.33–2.15) | 1.26 | (0.52–3.08) | 1.01 | (0.35–2.92) | 0.720 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.79 | (0.33–1.91) | 1.10 | (0.48–2.51) | 0.89 | (0.38–2.11) | 0.60 | (0.23–1.56) | 0.421 | ||
| Endometrium | 203 | High GI | 1 | 0.96 | (0.61–1.50) | 1.11 | (0.71–1.74) | 0.93 | (0.57–1.52) | 0.98 | (0.56–1.71) | 0.935 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.33 | (0.82–2.13) | 1.49 | (0.93–2.39) | 1.15 | (0.69–1.90) | 1.36 | (0.82–2.26) | 0.471 | ||
| Ovary | 135 | High GI | 1 | 0.88 | (0.53–1.45) | 0.68 | (0.39–1.19) | 0.64 | (0.35–1.16) | 0.81 | (0.43–1.53) | 0.252 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.83 | (1.04–3.21) | 1.49 | (0.82–2.72) | 1.45 | (0.79–2.67) | 1.59 | (0.86–2.94) | 0.402 | ||
| Prostate | 481 | High GI | 1 | 1.00 | (0.75–1.33) | 0.97 | (0.72–1.30) | 1.17 | (0.86–1.58) | 1.07 | (0.75–1.52) | 0.431 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.08 | (0.81–1.43) | 0.90 | (0.67–1.21) | 0.93 | (0.69–1.26) | 1.00 | (0.72–1.37) | 0.638 | ||
| Bladder | 251 | High GI | 1 | 1.35 | (0.88–2.07) | 1.27 | (0.81–1.97) | 1.51 | (0.98–2.34) | 1.44 | (0.89–2.34) | 0.124 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.88 | (0.61–1.28) | 0.91 | (0.62–1.33) | 0.87 | (0.59–1.29) | 0.67 | (0.43–1.03) | 0.112 | ||
| Kidney | 136 | High GI | 1 | 1.10 | (0.67–1.81) | 0.92 | (0.53–1.57) | 0.61 | (0.33–1.15) | 1.02 | (0.54–1.92) | 0.391 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.91 | (0.65–1.88) | 1.11 | (0.65–1.88) | 0.93 | (0.54–1.63) | 0.74 | (0.40–1.34) | 0.418 | ||
| Meninges | 75 | High GI | 1 | 0.97 | (0.46–2.02) | 0.88 | (0.40–1.94) | 1.21 | (0.56–2.63) | 1.53 | (0.64–3.64) | 0.322 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.67 | (0.33–1.38) | 0.89 | (0.45–1.76) | 0.54 | (0.25–1.17) | 0.56 | (0.25–1.25) | 0.1.37 | ||
| Brain | 95 | High GI | 1 | 1.10 | (0.57–2.15) | 1.07 | (0.54–2.14) | 1.66 | (0.85–3.22) | 0.85 | (0.37–1.98) | 0.654 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.49 | (0.74–2.99) | 2.14 | (1.10–4.18) | 1.42 | (0.69–2.94) | 1.05 | (0.47–2.31) | 0.972 | ||
| Thyroid | 132 | High GI | 1 | 0.96 | (0.55–1.68) | 0.99 | (0.56–1.75) | 0.72 | (0.38–1.34) | 0.91 | (0.47–1.79) | 0.526 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.14 | (0.64–2.03) | 1.19 | (0.67–2.14) | 1.37 | (0.77–2.45) | 1.06 | (0.56–1.99) | 0.651 | ||
| Lymphomas | 106 | High GI | 1 | 0.78 | (0.43–1.42) | 0.93 | (0.51–1.69) | 0.62 | (0.31–1.23) | 0.97 | (0.48–1.98) | 0.656 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.12 | (0.61–2.05) | 0.84 | (0.43–1.61) | 1.09 | (0.58–2.03) | 0.79 | (0.40–1.58) | 0.538 | ||
| Myeloma | 72 | High GI | 1 | 0.81 | (0.36–1.82) | 0.71 | (0.30–1.66) | 1.14 | (0.52–2.48) | 1.13 | (0.48–2.66) | 0.541 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.10 | (0.53–2.30) | 0.83 | (0.37–1.88) | 1.19 | (0.56–2.51) | 1.00 | (0.46–2.18) | 0.926 | ||
| All cancers combined | 5112 | High GI | 1 | 1.07 | (0.98–1.17) | 1.02 | (0.93–1.12) | 1.03 | (0.93–1.13) | 1.09 | (0.98–1.21) | 0.338 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.01 | (0.92–1.10) | 1.02 | (0.93–1.12) | 0.96 | (0.87–1.05) | 0.98 | (0.89–1.08) | 0.399 | ||
| DRCs* | 2449 | High GI | 1 | 1.05 | (0.93–1.20) | 1.11 | (0.97–1.27) | 1.12 | (0.97–1.29) | 1.23 | (1.05–1.44) | 0.011 |
| Low GI | 1 | 0.98 | (0.86–1.12) | 1.02 | (0.89–1.16) | 0.95 | (0.83–1.09) | 0.96 | (0.84–1.11) | 0.517 | ||
| Mortality | 2460 | High GI | 1 | 1.02 | (0.90–1.17) | 0.89 | (0.77–1.02) | 1.03 | (0.90–1.18) | 1.04 | (0.90–1.22) | 0.651 |
| Low GI | 1 | 1.01 | (0.89–1.14) | 0.97 | (0.85–1.10) | 0.87 | (0.76–1.00) | 0.91 | (0.79–1.04) | 0.029 | ||
†Stratified by food frequency questionnaire and adjusted for sex, education, smoking status, BMI, alcohol intake, fibre intake, saturated fat intake, non-alcohol energy intake and physical activity; §Tests for linear trend were assessed after assigning an ordinal number to each quintile. *Diabetes-related cancers.