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. 2017 Aug 29;7:9803. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-09962-z

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Forecasted vs. observed seismicity distribution in the aftershock zone, the maps report the mean +2 standard deviation confidence interval for the number of events per [km²] (latitude/longitude cells of a 0.01° × 0.01° grid) equal to or greater than magnitude M _l = 3 in the indicated 24-hour forecasting time window. In the lower left corner, the daily probabilities of having earthquakes with magnitudes 4, 5, and 6 or larger are reported. Each sub-plot also features the earthquakes (coloured dots) that occurred during the corresponding forecasting time window together with the two main events with M ≥ 5.0 (magenta stars). The sub-figures illustrate the observed (plotted in red star) vs. the error-bar for the forecasted number of events with m ≥ M _l corresponding to the forecasting time interval: the median value (the 50^th percentile, equivalent of the logarithmic mean in the arithmetic scale) inside a grey-filled square, the (logarithmic) mean plus/minus one (logarithmic) standard deviation indicating the interval between 16^th and 84^th percentiles (marked with blue horizontal lines), and the (logarithmic) mean plus/minus two (logarithmic) standard deviations indicating the interval between 2^nd and 98^th percentiles (marked with black horizontal lines). (MATLAB 2016b, http://softwaresso.unina.it/matlab/ is used to create this figure).