Table 2.

Statistics (mean and COV) of ETAS model parameters θ for estimating the daily seismicity rate of the desired dates for the second part of the sequence after Mw 5.4 at 26-October 2016 (Supplementary Fig. S2 also illustrates the sampled histograms representing the marginal posterior PDF’s corresponding to the six model parameters [β, K, c, p, d, q]).

	β		c [day]		p		d [km]		q		K		K t		K R
	mean	COV	mean	COV	mean	COV	mean	COV	mean	COV	mean	COV	mean	COV	mean	COV
26/10/2016*	1.67	0.05	0.02	0.36	1.17	0.06	1.57	0.12	1.74	0.06	0.56	0.26	0.08	0.23	0.47	0.31
26/10/2016†	1.34	0.17	0.03	0.27	1.20	0.14	1.39	0.17	1.55	0.09	9.48	0.20	0.08	0.46	0.28	0.43
26/10/2016‡	1.53	0.13	0.03	0.27	1.38	0.16	1.53	0.15	1.58	0.08	0.70	0.39	0.08	0.29	0.32	0.46
27/10/2016	1.35	0.10	0.03	0.26	1.38	0.14	1.51	0.13	1.69	0.08	1.33	0.19	0.09	0.23	0.43	0.41
29/10/2016	1.49	0.07	0.03	0.27	1.27	0.09	1.58	0.13	1.71	0.06	0.57	0.34	0.10	0.14	0.47	0.37

^*Corresponding to Fig. 3(a,b); ^†corresponding to Fig. 3c; ^‡corresponding to Fig. 3d.