Table 2.
Cost-effectiveness estimates of reducing risks of different magnitudes
| Point on Biothreat Spectrum | N Expected number of events in 1 century | L Expected number of lives lost per event | R Reduction in risk by spending $250 billion | Cost per life-year saved (assuming 50 years per life) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicative Incident | 100 | 1-10 | 20% | $25m-$250m | |
| Indicative Event | 10 | 100-1,000 | 20% | $2.5m-$25m | |
| Indicative Disaster | 1 | 10,000-100,000 | 20% | $250k-$2.5m | |
| Existential Risk | Model 1 | 0.0005 to 0.02 | 1016 life years | 1% | $0.125-$5.00 |
| Model 2 | 1.6 × 10–6 to 8 × 10–5 | 1016 life years | 1% | $31.00-$1,600 | |
| Model 3 | 5 × 10–5 to 1.4 × 10–4 | 1016 life years | 1% | $18.00-$50.00 | |