Table 1.

Regional and national implications of urban area expansion on croplands and crop production

Region or country	Expected cropland loss, Mha	Relative cropland loss, % of cropland	Production loss, Pcal⋅y−1	Production loss, % of total crop production	Productivity compared to domestic/regional average
World	30 (27–35)	2.0 (1.8–2.4)	333 (308–378)	3.7 (3.4–4.2)	1.77
Asia	18 (16–21)	3.2 (2.9–3.7)	231 (214–264)	5.6 (5.1–6.3)	1.59
Africa	6 (5–6)	2.6 (2.4–3)	49 (45–52)	8.9 (8.3–9.4)	3.32
Europe	2 (2–3)	0.5 (0.5–0.9)	17 (16–23)	1.2 (1.1–1.5)	2.18
Americas	5 (4–5)	1.2 (1.1–1.4)	35 (32–40)	1.3 (1.2–1.5)	1.09
Australasia	0.1 (0–0.1)	0.2 (0.1–0.3)	0.3 (0.1–0.3)	0.2 (0.1–0.3)	0.94
China	7.6 (7.1–8.6)	5.4 (5–6.1)	137 (128–153)	8.7 (8.2–9.8)	1.53
India	3.4 (3.3–3.7)	2.0 (1.9–2.2)	34 (32–38)	3.9 (3.7–4.3)	1.61
Nigeria	2.1 (1.8–2.5)	5.7 (5–6.9)	16 (15–17)	11.7 (10.7–12.6)	1.82
Pakistan	1.8 (1.7–2)	7.6 (7.2–8.6)	9 (9–10)	8.8 (8.4–9.9)	1.22
United States	1.5 (1.4–1.6)	0.8 (0.8–0.9)	11 (11–12)	0.7 (0.7–0.8)	0.90
Brazil	1.0 (0.9–1.2)	2.0 (1.7–2.4)	10 (9–12)	2.4 (2.1–2.8)	1.22
Egypt	0.8 (0.7–0.8)	34.1 (31.6–35.8)	25 (23–26)	36.5 (34–38)	1.07
Vietnam	0.8 (0.7–0.8)	10.3 (9.3–11.2)	15 (15–17)	15.9 (15.2–17.2)	1.41
Mexico	0.7 (0.6–0.8)	1.9 (1.7–2.3)	4 (4–5)	3.7 (3.2–4.4)	1.91
Indonesia	0.6 (0.5–0.7)	1.1 (0.9–1.3)	10 (8–11)	2.3 (2–2.7)	2.03

Cropland and production losses are generated using data from refs. 4, 15, and 17. We differentiate between different urbanization probability thresholds (50, 75, and 87.5%). Depending on the corresponding threshold, we define cropland loss scenarios as follows: low (>87.5%), medium (>75%), and high (>50%). Medium-scenario results are reported, and ranges indicate low- to high-scenario results. The 10 countries with the highest absolute crop production losses are presented in descending order.