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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: Med Decis Making. 2017 May 10;37(7):802–814. doi: 10.1177/0272989X17706081

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Simplified depiction of the cardiovascular disease state transitions used in the CVD PREDICT model. Individuals can start in any of the orange-colored health states (No CVD, Chronic CHD, Chronic Stroke). Transitions between health states are based on calibrated risks scores, case-fatality probabilities from the published literature, life table-based mortality risks, or other sources. The model simulates the CVD health and cost projections for each individual in the model until they die from CVD-related or non-CVD-related causes.