Simplified depiction of the cardiovascular disease state transitions used in the CVD PREDICT model. Individuals can start in any of the orange-colored health states (No CVD, Chronic CHD, Chronic Stroke). Transitions between health states are based on calibrated risks scores, case-fatality probabilities from the published literature, life table-based mortality risks, or other sources. The model simulates the CVD health and cost projections for each individual in the model until they die from CVD-related or non-CVD-related causes.