Table 2.
Selected model input parameter values and ranges
| Parameter | ||||
| Initialisation | Mean | Min | Max | Source |
| Age distribution | OS1* | – | – | US Census Bureau, Population Division103 |
| Sex distribution | – | – | US Census Bureau, Population Division103 | |
| Ethnicity distribution | – | – | US Census Bureau, Population Division103 | |
| High sugar consumption | 57.278%† | 38.186% | 85.917% | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rodríguez et al, Imamura et al 3 35 42 |
| Baseline transition probabilities‡ | Mean chance | Min | Max | Source |
| Non-NAFLD -> steatosis | 0.0100 | 0.006700 | 0.01500 | Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112 |
| Non-NAFLD -> NASH | 0.0003 | 0.000201 | 0.00045 | Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112 |
| Steatosis -> NASH | 0.0060 | 0.004020 | 0.00900 | Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112 |
| Steatosis -> cirrhosis | 0.0002 | 0.000134 | 0.00030 | Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112 |
| NASH -> cirrhosis | 0.0020 | 0.001340 | 0.00300 | Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112 |
| NASH -> HCC | 0.0001† | 0.000067 | 0.00015 | Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–115 |
| NASH -> liver death | 0.0038 | 0.002546 | 0.00570 | Lazo et al, Stepanova et al, Söderberg et al, Haflidadottir et al 116–119 |
| Cirrhosis -> HCC | 0.0200† | 0.013400 | 0.03000 | Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–115 |
| Cirrhosis -> liver death | 0.0340 | 0.022780 | 0.05100 | Lazo et al, Stepanova et al, Söderberg et al, Haflidadottir et al 116–119 |
| HCC -> liver death | 0.5000 | 0.335000 | 0.75000 | Lazo et al, Stepanova et al, Söderberg et al, Haflidadottir et al 116–119 |
| Non-CHD -> CHD | 0.0045† | 0.003015 | 0.00675 | National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute120 121 |
| CHD -> CHD death | 0.0100† | 0.006700 | 0.01500 | Mozaffarian et al; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute5 6 120 |
| Non-T2D -> T2D | 0.0045† | 0.003015 | 0.00675 | Geiss et al, Fishman et al 72 122 |
| T2D -> T2D death | 0.0100† | 0.006700 | 0.01500 | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Geiss et al, Fishman et al 6 72 122 |
| Healthy weight -> overweight | 0.0500 | 0.033500 | 0.07500 | Daouli et al, Gordon-Larsen et al, Parikh et al, Williamson et al 123–126 |
| Healthy weight -> obese | 0.0060 | 0.004020 | 0.00900 | Daouli et al, Gordon-Larsen et al, Parikh et al, Williamson et al 123–126 |
| Overweight -> obese | 0.0180 | 0.012060 | 0.02700 | Daouli et al, Gordon-Larsen et al, Parikh et al, Williamson et al 123–126 |
| Each alive state -> non-disease-related death | 0.0100† | 0.006700 | 0.01500 | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention6 |
| Risk factors (ORs) | Mean value | Min | Max | Source |
| NHB ethnicity for progression within NAFLD | 0.93 | 0.70 | 1.00 | Schneider et al 127 |
| Hispanic ethnicity for progression within NAFLD | 1.67 | 1.22 | 2.22 | Schneider et al 127 |
| Overweight for progression within NAFLD | 2.19 | 1.60 | 3.38 | Bruno et al, Kelishadi et al, Peng et al, Dassanayake et al, Lee et al, Zeb et al, Chan et al 105 128–133 |
| Obesity for progression within NAFLD | 3.14 | 2.07 | 5.28 | Bruno et al, Kelishadi et al, Peng et al, Dassanayake et al, Lee et al, Zeb et al, Chan et al 105 128–133 |
| High sugar consumption for progression within NAFLD | 2.00 | 1.50 | 3.00 | Abid et al, Papandreou et al 38 134 |
| NAFLD for TP non-CHD -> CHD | 2.31 | 1.66 | 3.62 | Wong et al, Hamaguchi et al, Fan et al, Targher et al, Treeprasertsuk et al 135–139 |
| Overweight for TP non-CHD -> CHD | 1.22 | 1.12 | 1.32 | Canoy et al, Lu et al, Gruson et al, de Hollander et al, Labounty et al, Mongraw-Chaffin et al, Park and Kim, Taylor et al 140–147 |
| Obesity for TP non-CHD -> CHD | 1.60 | 1.43 | 1.79 | Canoy et al, Lu et al, Gruson et al, de Hollander et al, Labounty et al, Mongraw-Chaffin et al, Park and Kim, Taylor et al 140–147 |
| T2D for TP non-CHD -> CHD | 2.24 | 1.64 | 3.06 | Peters et al 148 |
| NAFLD for TP non-T2D -> T2D | 2.73 | 1.87 | 4.46 | Shibata et al, Kim et al, Yamada et al, Sung and Kim, Kasturiratne et al, Abdullah et al, Nyamdorj et al 149–155 |
| Overweight for TP non-T2D -> T2D | 2.18 | 1.59 | 3.36 | Rolando et al, Rodbard et al, Kodama et al, Bell et al, Guh et al, Emond et al, Grimes et al 156–162 |
| Obesity for TP non-T2D -> T2D | 3.36 | 2.18 | 5.72 | Rolando et al, Rodbard et al, Kodama et al, Bell et al, Guh et al, Emond et al, Grimes et al 156–162 |
| NAFLD for progression within the BMI chain | 2.19 | 1.60 | 3.38 | Bruno et al, Kelishadi et al, Peng et al, Dassanayake et al, Lee et al, Zeb et al, Chan et al 105 128–133 |
| High sugar consumption for progression within the BMI chain | 2.60 | 1.20 | 6.00 | Emond et al, Grimes et al 161 162 |
*See online supplementary table 1.
†Age-specific, sex-specific and/or ethnicity-specific values are specified in the online supplement.
‡Transition probabilities for regression to less severe disease are specified in the online supplement.
BMI, body mass index; CHD, coronary heart disease; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (steatosis, NASH and cirrhosis); NASH, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; NHB, non-Hispanic black; T2D, type 2 diabetes; TP, transition probability.