Fig 1. Scenario tree for clinical surveillance (CLIN) for bovine brucellosis in cattle in France, depicting the probability (CSeU) that any farm within a risk group and a production type is infected and detected (left), and the probability (SeU) that an animal is infected, aborts, and is detected in an infected herd (right).

Only the pathway for one of the three risk groups is completed; assume other identical in structure. Screening tests are described in Methods.