Table 1. Model parameter values used in the stochastic tree scenario analysis to assess the sensitivity (SSe) of the French bovine brucellosis surveillance system.
| Parameter | Input value [95% confidence interval] | Sources |
|---|---|---|
| Median number of cows (over 24 months-old) per beef herd (excluding herds with ≤ 5 reproductive animals) | 36 | Dataa |
| Median number of cows (over 24 months-old) per dairy herd (excluding herds with ≤ 5 reproductive animals) | 52 | Dataa |
| Within-herd prevalence (PU*) | Uniform(1/n—0.10)b | [4, 33–37] |
| Proportion of brucellosis-related abortions (%) | 63 [30–96] | [28–31] |
| Proportion of abortions detected (%) | 30 [18–42] | [38] |
| Proportion of abortion notifications in beef cattle (%) | 21 [12–29] | [10] |
| Proportion of abortion notifications in dairy cattle (%) | 41 [31–50] | [10] |
| Probability of infection in purchased bovine | max(PU*× PH*, 10−5)c | - |
| Annual proportion of herds (in the high- and low-trade groups) with ≥ 1 introduction investigated (%) | 47 [29–66]d | [11], Dataa |
| Annual proportion of introductions investigated per herd (%) | 22 [13–30]d | [11], Dataa |
| BPAT sensitivity (%) | 95.4 [89.2–100.0] | [39] |
| CF test sensitivity (%) | 89.0 [64.4–100.0] | [39] |
| Bacteriology sensitivity (%) | 46.1 [28.0–64.2] | [39] |
| Bulk milk ELISA test sensitivity (%) | 97.9 [92.3–100.0] | [39] |
| Allergic skin-test sensitivity (%) | 78.3 [65.6–91.0] | [39] |
| Milk ring-test sensitivity (%) | 89.5 [65.6–100.0] | [39] |
a Data from the French national cattle register for 2010–2014
b Uniform distribution ranging from one infected animal per herd (1/n) to 0.10
c PU*, within-herd prevalence; PH*, design prevalence
d Uncertainty interval based on a coefficient of variation of 20%