Table 4. Mean sensitivity and costs (± SE) of alternative surveillance systems for bovine brucellosis in France at PH* = 0.02% and PH* = 0.05%.
At higher PH*, all scenarios were predicted to be 100%-sensitive.
| Scenarios | SSe—PH* = 0.05%a | SSe—PH* = 0.02% | SSe—PH* = 0.01% | Surveillance cost (million €) | Cost (million €) for farmers (%b) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 –CLIN1+PROG1+INTRO1 | 100.0 ± 0.1 | 98.6 ± 2.1 | 91.0 ± 7.0 | 14.9 ± 1.8 | 12.0 (81%) |
| 2 –CLIN1+PROG1 | 100.0 ± 0.1 | 98.2 ± 2.6 | 89.3 ± 7.7 | 11.5 ± 1.3 | 8.6 (75%) |
| 3 –CLIN1+PROG2+INTRO1 | 100.0 ± 0.1 | 98.4 ± 2.1 | 89.9 ± 6.9 | 11.8 ± 1.4 | 9.0 (76%) |
| 4 –CLIN1+PROG2 | 100.0 ± 0.1 | 97.9 ± 2.6 | 88.1 ± 7.8 | 8.5 ± 1.0 | 5.6 (67%) |
| 5 –CLIN1+PROG3+INTRO1 | 99.9 ± 0.3 | 96.6 ± 4.3 | 86.1 ± 9.3 | 11.5 ± 1.4 | 8.6 (75%) |
| 6 –CLIN1+PROG3 | 99.9 ± 0.4 | 95.8 ± 5.0 | 83.8 ± 10.5 | 8.2 ± 1.0 | 5.3 (65%) |
| 7 –CLIN1+PROG4+INTRO1 | 100.0 ± 0.0 | 99.8 ± 0.5 | 97.2 ± 3.8 | 11.5 ± 1.5 | 8.6 (75%) |
| 8 –CLIN1+PROG4 | 100.0 ± 0.0 | 99.7 ± 0.7 | 97.0 ± 4.1 | 8.1 ± 1.1 | 5.3 (65%) |
| 9 –CLIN1+PROG5+INTRO1 | 99.9 ± 0.4 | 96.0 ± 4.6 | 84.4 ± 9.8 | 7.2 ± 0.9 | 4.4 (60%) |
| 10 –CLIN1+PROG5 | 99.8 ± 0.5 | 95.4 ± 4.9 | 81.8 ± 10.8 | 4.6 ± 0.7 | 1.7 (38%) |
| 11 –CLIN2+PROG1+INTRO1 | 99.8 ± 0.5 | 96.6 ± 4.7 | 87.2 ± 11.2 | 12.5 ± 1.7 | 12.0 (96%) |
| 12 –CLIN2+PROG1 | 99.8 ± 0.6 | 95.8 ± 5.7 | 84.9 ± 12.6 | 9.1 ± 1.2 | 8.6 (95%) |
| 13 –CLIN2+PROG2+INTRO1 | 99.8 ± 0.5 | 96.3 ± 5.1 | 85.4 ± 11.2 | 9.5 ± 1.4 | 9.0 (95%) |
| 14 –CLIN2+PROG2 | 99.8 ± 0.6 | 95.6 ± 5.8 | 83.5 ± 12.6 | 6.1 ± 0.9 | 5.6 (92%) |
| 15 –CLIN2+PROG3+INTRO1 | 99.2 ± 1.9 | 92.6 ± 9.6 | 79.1 ± 15.7 | 9.2 ± 1.3 | 8.6 (94%) |
| 16 –CLIN2+PROG3 | 98.9 ± 2.4 | 91.1 ± 11.1 | 76.2 ± 18.1 | 5.8 ± 0.9 | 5.3 (91%) |
| 17 –CLIN2+PROG4+INTRO1 | 100.0 ± 0.0 | 99.6 ± 1.0 | 96.0 ± 5.5 | 9.1 ± 1.4 | 8.6 (94%) |
| 18 –CLIN2+PROG4 | 100.0 ± 0.0 | 98.4 ± 1.5 | 95.4 ± 6.3 | 5.8 ± 0.9 | 5.3 (91%) |
| 19 –CLIN2+PROG5+INTRO1 | 98.9 ± 2.1 | 91.7 ± 10.2 | 77.9 ± 15.9 | 4.9 ± 0.7 | 4.4 (89%) |
| 20 –CLIN2+PROG5 | 98.6 ± 2.8 | 89.5 ± 12.4 | 73.0 ± 19.0 | 2.3 ± 0.4 | 1.7 (76%) |
a PH*, design prevalence
b % of total surveillance cost