Table 1.

List of model parameters and their values for a risk assessment of canine rabies entry via Indonesian fishing boats into north-west Cape York Peninsula and rabies introduction to a resident dog in Seisia, Queensland, Australia.

Node	Parameter	Description	Value	Source
1	Probability boat carrying at least one dog	PERT (min, most likely, max)	0.0217, 0.1196, 0.4329	Expert opinion
2	Prevalence of rabies in Indonesia (0—1)	Uniform (min, max)	0.0001, 0.05	Kitala et al. (24); Cleaveland et al. (25); Kayali et al. (26); Tenzin et al. (5); Tenzin et al. (6); Mustiana (22); Putra et al. (4)
3	Incubation period (days)	Lognormal (mean, SD)	23.6, 17.3	Tojinbara et al. (27)
	Clinical period (days)	Gamma (shape, rate)	2.83, 0.91	Hampson et al. (28)
	Duration of travel (days)	Empirical (min, median, max)	1.092, 4.711, 24.61	Expert opinion
	Probability arrives in incubation period	Empirical (min, median, max)	0.6386, 0.6528, 0.6715	Derived from expert opinion parameters
	Probability arrives in clinical period	Empirical (min, median, max)	0.1548, 0.1708, 0.1809	Derived from expert opinion parameters
	Probability dies during travel	Empirical (min, median, max)	0.1654, 0.1764, 0.1902	Derived from expert opinion parameters
4	Duration of stay (days)	Empirical (min, median, max)	0.956, 5.177, 109.7	Expert opinion
	Probability apparently healthy dog disembarks <5 days stay	PERT (min, most likely, max)	0.0213, 0.0851, 0.1	Expert opinion
	Probability apparently healthy dogs disembarks ≥5 days stay	PERT (min, most likely, max)	0.0213, 0.0851, 0.319	Expert opinion
	Combined probability apparently healthy dog disembarks	Empirical (min, median, max)	0.023, 0.08545, 0.300	Derived from expert opinion parameters
	Probability a clinically affected dog disembarks	PERT (min, most likely, max)	0.021, 0.021, 0.051	Expert opinion
5	Probability a boat lands on Seisia beach	Point value	0.0455	Expert opinion
	Total daily beach-minutes (minutes)	Empirical (min, median, max)	141, 379, 7,710	Field data
	Daily probability that a resident dog is on Seisia beach	Empirical (min, median, max)	0.089, 0.264, 0.556	Field data
6	Probability dog develops furious rabies	Uniform (min, max)	0.1, 0.6	Vaughn et al. (29); Fekadu and Shaddock (30); Foggin (31)
	Probability dog develops dumb rabies	Uniform (min, max)	1—Uniform (0.1, 0.6)	n/a
	Probability of dog bite if dumb form	Uniform (min, max)	0.001, 0.1	Field data
	Probability of dog bite if furious form	Uniform (min, max)	0.5, 0.8	Hampson et al. (28)
7	Probability of rabies development after bite	Uniform (min, max)	0.35, 0.52	Hampson et al. (28)
8	Number of boats that arrive the north-west Cape York Peninsula/year	Empirical (min, median, max)	1, 6, 23	Expert opinion
	Number of boats that arrive in the NPA (Seisia)/year	Empirical (min, median, max)	0.0455 × empirical (1, 6, 23)	Derived from expert opinion parameters
	Number of dogs per boat	Empirical (min, median, max)	1, 2, 5	Expert opinion

Probabilities are given in the range 0–1.