Fig. 4.

Predicted warming impacts on sorghum yields under alternative uniform temperature changes for a model that allows for heterogeneous weather effects. We extend the homogeneous weather-effect model from Fig. 1 to allow the effect of the weather variables to vary across three stages of the growing season. We report the warming effect associated with each stage as well as the cumulative effect of combining them (Combined Heterogeneous). We also include the impacts from Fig. 1 as a reference (Combined Homogeneous). The first panel reports the total warming impacts, and the next two divide the impact by the number of days within the growing season and the number of days temperature exceeded 33 °C within the season. Bars show 95% confidence intervals using spatially robust SEs clustered by year.