Table 3. Results of the base-case analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis: Women.

Age group	Strategy	Mean cost (£)	Mean QALYs	Mean CV events	Incremental cost	Incremental QALYs	ICER (£ per QALY gained)	Probability of cost-effectiveness at £20,000/QALY	Polypill vs current practice
									ICER (£ per QALY gained)
40–49	Current practice	1,325	7.077	0.0505	0	0	-	0%
	Optimal guideline care	1,343	7.083	0.0446	18	0.006	2,994	94%
	Polypill	1,671	7.093	0.0354	328	0.010	33,585	6%	21,798
50–59	Current practice	1,586	6.675	0.0894	0	0	-	0%
	Optimal guideline care	1,599	6.688	0.0770	13	0.013	950	46%
	Polypill	1,841	6.701	0.0644	243	0.013	18,811	54%	9,696
60–69	Current practice	1,805	6.513	0.1203	0	0	-	0%
	Optimal guideline care	1,829	6.530	0.1060	23	0.018	1,304	2%
	Polypill	1,994	6.546	0.0928	165	0.015	10,730	98%	5,667
70–74	Current practice	1,985	5.982	0.1492	0	0	-	0%
	Optimal guideline care	2,042	6.009	0.1281	57	0.027	2,105	0%
	Polypill	2,097	6.022	0.1170	55	0.013	4,245	100%	2,797
75+	Current practice	1,880	4.733	0.1644	0	0	-	0%
	Optimal guideline care	1,947	4.774	0.1345	66	0.041	1,606	63%
	Polypill	1,967	4.779	0.1303	20	0.005	4,131	37%	1,870