Table 2. India transmission model inputs.
| Model Parameter | Value | Probabilistic range | Distribution | Ref. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age of sexual debut | 19 | 17–22 | uniform | [31] |
| Sexual risk characteristics | ||||
| Proportion of men who are homosexual | 0.0006 | 0.0006–0.0097* | uniform | [30] |
| Proportion of men who are bisexual | 0.0004 | 0.0004–0.00049 | normal | [30] |
| Proportion women who are homosexual | 0.0006 | — | — | * |
| Proportion of women who are bisexual | 0.0004 | — | — | * |
| Proportion abstinent | ||||
| Straight males | 0.2775 | 0.2241–0.4260 | normal | [34] |
| Homosexual/Bisexual males | 0 | — | — | - |
| Straight/Homosexual/Bisexual females | 0.260 | 0.1227–0.4378 | normal | [31] |
| Proportion monogomous | ||||
| Straight males | 0.573 | 0.3857–0.6616 | normal | [34] |
| Homosexual/Bisexual males | 0.230 | 0.1541–0.3035 | normal | [30] |
| Straight/Homosexual/Bisexual females | 0.690 | 0.5345–0.8478 | normal | [31] |
| Proportion concurrent partners | ||||
| Straight males | 0.1292 | 0.068–0.194 | normal | [34] |
| Homosexual/Bisexual males | 0.675 | — | — | - |
| Straight/Homosexual/Bisexual females | 0.047 | 0.0199–0.0273 | normal | [34] |
| Proportion CSW or clients of CSW | ||||
| Straight males | 0.02 | 0.02–0.2* | uniform | [32] |
| Homosexual/Bisexual males | 0.095 | 0.0744–0.1198 | normal | [30] |
| Straight/Homosexual/Bisexual females | 0.003 | 0.003–0.03* | uniform | [30] |
| Average duration (years) of partnership | ||||
| Monogomous | 30.0 | 0.5x-1.5x | uniform | [2] |
| Concurrent partners | 1.0 | 0.5x-1.5x | uniform | [2] |
| CSW or clients of CSW | 0.5 | 0.5x-1.5x | uniform | [2] |
| Median number of concurrent partnerships | ||||
| Monogomous | 1 | — | — | [59] |
| Concurrent partners | 3 | 0.5x-1.5x | uniform | [59] |
| CSW or clients of CSW | 10 | 0.5x-1.5x | uniform | [59] |
| Degree of assortative mixing | 0.2 | 0.05–0.5 | uniform | [60] |
| HIV risk behavior modifiers | ||||
| Prevalence of unhealthy alcohol use: females | 0.020 | 0.0096–0.0244 | normal | [61] |
| Prevalence of unhealthy alcohol use: males | 0.185 | 0.0925–0.2775 | uniform | + |
| Proportion of unhealthy alcohol users who are depressed | 0.57 | — | — | ** |
| Proportion of condom nonuse | 0.73 | 0.730–0.815 | normal | [31] |
| Probability of not being tested for HIV | 0.98 | 0.960–0.990 | uniform | [33] |
| Probability of ART nonadherence | 0.26 | 0.260–0.364 | normal | [62] |
| Probability of untreated STI | 0.06 | 0.060–0.096 | normal | [63] |
| Sexual and IDU transmission | ||||
| Transmission risk per sex act | ||||
| Male to Male | 0.00167 | 0.5x-1.5x | normal | [64] |
| Female to Male | 0.00081 | 0.5x-1.5x | normal | [64] |
| Male to Female | 0.00042 | 0.5x-1.5x | normal | [64] |
| Transmission risk per unsafe needle sharing | 0.0036 | 0.5x-1.5x | normal | [65] |
| Relative risk of transmission if viral load: | [66] | |||
| 0–2.5 | 0.16 | — | — | |
| 2.5–3.5 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 3.5–4.5 | 6.54 | — | — | |
| 4.5–5.5 | 8.85 | — | — | |
| >5.5 | 9.03 | — | — | |
| Injection Drug Use Characteristics | ||||
| Proportion of population that injects drugs | 4.99E-05 | 4.99E-5-0.0025* | uniform | [30] |
| Number of needle sharing partners per year | 5 | 0.5x-1.5x | uniform | [67] |
| Shared injections per year | 102 | 54–150 | uniform | [30] |
| HIV disease related | ||||
| CD4 Mean | 644 | 294–994 | uniform | [35] |
| CD4 SD | 260 | 65–585 | normal | [35] |
| VL Mean | 4.46 | 4–5 | uniform | [35] |
| Utility | ||||
| CD4<50 | 0.79 | 0.74–0.84 | uniform | [68] |
| CD4 51–200 | 0.85 | 0.8–0.9 | uniform | [68] |
| CD4 > 201 | 0.94 | 0.89–0.99 | uniform | [68] |
| Change with ART treatment | -0.053 | 0.5x-1.5x | uniform | [68] |
*Due to lack of evidence on these variables, we made assumptions on point estimates and included broad distribution ranges to compensate for our lack of knowledge in uncertainty analysis.
+Based on survey responses from our patient population (unpublished)
**Based on personal communication with Dr. Jean Schensul