Table 3.
Foot-and-mouth disease control strategy results—comparison between baseline projections and scenario in year of outbreak (2017).
| Baseline | Endogenous displacement |
No displacement |
Substantial displacement |
||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stamping-out |
Vaccinate-to-die |
Stamping-out |
Vaccinate-to-die |
Stamping-out |
Vaccinate-to-die |
||||||||||||||
| 5th | Median | 95th | 5th | Median | 95th | 5th | Median | 95th | 5th | Median | 95th | 5th | Median | 95th | 5th | Median | 95th | ||
| Beef sector | |||||||||||||||||||
| Production (1,000 t) | 906 | 904 | 903 | 897 | 901 | 898 | 895 | 904 | 903 | 897 | 901 | 898 | 895 | 904 | 903 | 897 | 901 | 898 | 895 |
| Consumption (1,000 t) | 1,107 | 1,139 | 1,143 | 1,151 | 1,132 | 1,133 | 1,138 | 1,159 | 1,165 | 1,178 | 1,147 | 1,149 | 1,158 | 1,111 | 1,110 | 1,106 | 1,106 | 1,104 | 1,102 |
| Net exports (1,000 t) | −201 | −235 | −240 | −254 | −231 | −235 | −243 | −255 | −262 | −281 | −247 | −251 | −263 | −206 | −207 | −209 | −205 | −206 | −207 |
| Price (£/100 kg dw) | 318 | 295 | 293 | 288 | 300 | 300 | 296 | 285 | 282 | 276 | 293 | 292 | 286 | 316 | 317 | 322 | 320 | 321 | 322 |
| Output (£ million) | 2,881 | 2,668 | 2,645 | 2,587 | 2,705 | 2,691 | 2,648 | 2,581 | 2,549 | 2,481 | 2,639 | 2,620 | 2,561 | 2,857 | 2,858 | 2,885 | 2,878 | 2,880 | 2,881 |
| Changes in percent | |||||||||||||||||||
| Production | −0.2% | −0.3% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.9% | −1.2% | −0.2% | −0.3% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.9% | −1.2% | −0.2% | −0.3% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.9% | −1.2% | |
| Consumption | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | −0.1% | −0.1% | −0.2% | −0.4% | |
| Price | −7.2% | −7.9% | −9.3% | −5.5% | −5.8% | −7.0% | −10.2% | −11.2% | −13.1% | −7.8% | −8.3% | −10.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| Output | −7.4% | −8.2% | −10.2% | −6.1% | −6.6% | −8.1% | −10.4% | −11.5% | −13.9% | −8.4% | −9.0% | −11.1% | −0.8% | −0.8% | 0.2% | −0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Sheep sector | |||||||||||||||||||
| Production (1,000 t) | 319 | 319 | 318 | 316 | 316 | 313 | 310 | 319 | 318 | 316 | 316 | 313 | 310 | 319 | 318 | 316 | 316 | 313 | 310 |
| Consumption (1,000 t) | 313 | 338 | 341 | 350 | 332 | 333 | 337 | 364 | 369 | 386 | 353 | 355 | 363 | 317 | 317 | 318 | 314 | 312 | 309 |
| Net exports (1,000 t) | 7 | −19 | −23 | −33 | −16 | −19 | −27 | −45 | −52 | −70 | −37 | −41 | −53 | 1 | 1 | −1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Price (£/100 kg dw) | 375 | 291 | 283 | 257 | 307 | 306 | 292 | 224 | 213 | 182 | 247 | 244 | 225 | 358 | 359 | 354 | 370 | 380 | 389 |
| Output (£ million) | 1,199 | 927 | 898 | 815 | 971 | 957 | 906 | 715 | 677 | 577 | 782 | 766 | 698 | 1,140 | 1,140 | 1,121 | 1,170 | 1,192 | 1,207 |
| Changes in percent | |||||||||||||||||||
| Production | −0.3% | −0.6% | −1.0% | −1.1% | −1.9% | −3.0% | −0.3% | −0.6% | −1.0% | −1.1% | −1.9% | −3.0% | −0.3% | −0.6% | −1.0% | −1.1% | −1.9% | −3.0% | |
| Consumption | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 16.3% | 18.0% | 23.4% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | −0.4% | −1.1% | |
| Price | −22.5% | −24.7% | −31.4% | −18.1% | −18.6% | −22.1% | −40.2% | −43.2% | −51.4% | −34.1% | −34.9% | −40.0% | −4.7% | −4.4% | −5.6% | −1.3% | 1.3% | 3.7% | |
| Output | −22.7% | −25.1% | −32.1% | −19.0% | −20.2% | −24.4% | −40.4% | −43.5% | −51.9% | −34.8% | −36.1% | −41.8% | −4.9% | −4.9% | −6.5% | −2.4% | −0.6% | 0.6% | |
| Pig sector | |||||||||||||||||||
| Production (1,000 t) | 916 | 911 | 910 | 908 | 909 | 905 | 902 | 910 | 909 | 907 | 908 | 905 | 901 | 913 | 913 | 912 | 911 | 908 | 905 |
| Consumption (1,000 t) | 1,429 | 1,501 | 1,510 | 1,536 | 1,488 | 1,491 | 1,506 | 1,520 | 1,531 | 1,563 | 1,504 | 1,507 | 1,526 | 1,436 | 1,437 | 1,439 | 1,433 | 1,430 | 1,429 |
| Net exports (1,000 t) | −513 | −590 | −600 | −628 | −579 | −586 | −604 | −610 | −622 | −656 | −595 | −603 | −625 | −523 | −524 | −527 | −521 | −522 | −524 |
| Price (£/100 kg dw) | 132 | 112 | 109 | 103 | 115 | 114 | 110 | 106 | 103 | 95 | 110 | 109 | 104 | 130 | 130 | 129 | 131 | 132 | 132 |
| Output (£ million) | 1,211 | 1,017 | 995 | 935 | 1,046 | 1,035 | 996 | 963 | 936 | 866 | 999 | 986 | 940 | 1,186 | 1,183 | 1,172 | 1,194 | 1,198 | 1,197 |
| Changes in percent | |||||||||||||||||||
| Production | −0.6% | −0.7% | −0.9% | −0.8% | −1.2% | −1.5% | −0.7% | −0.8% | −1.0% | −0.9% | −1.3% | −1.6% | −0.4% | −0.4% | −0.5% | −0.5% | −0.9% | −1.2% | |
| Consumption | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| Price | −15.5% | −17.3% | −22.2% | −12.9% | −13.5% | −16.5% | −19.9% | −22.1% | −27.8% | −16.8% | −17.6% | −21.1% | −1.7% | −2.0% | −2.8% | −0.9% | −0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Output | −16.0% | −17.9% | −22.8% | −13.6% | −14.6% | −17.8% | −20.5% | −22.7% | −28.5% | −17.6% | −18.6% | −22.4% | −2.1% | −2.3% | −3.2% | −1.4% | −1.1% | −1.2% | |