Figure 1.

CMIP5 winter precipitation changes for (a) multi-model ensemble mean, (b) area average over the Mediterranean-climate grids (stippled region shown in Fig. 1a) by 2060–2089, relative to the historical period 1960–1989, using the RCP8.5 forcing scenario over the five global Mediterranean-climate regions. Stippling indicates the grid cells that satisfy the Mediterranean climate criteria and dashed boxes indicate its’ maximum regional extent. The multi-model ensemble average shown by the circle and the median indicated by the horizontal line, the box the interquartile range, and whiskers the range containing 99% of projections. Figure was plotted using NCAR Command Language Version 6.3.0 (NCL; ref. 31).