Table 3.
Type 2 Diabetes Incidence Rates, with the Use of 2-Year Moving Averages.*
| Subgroup | Year | Unadjusted Model | Adjusted Model† | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | Annual Increase (95% CI) |
P Value | Annual Increase (95% CI) |
P Value | |
| no. of cases/100,000 youths/yr | % | % | ||||||||||||
| All participants | 9.0 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 10.0 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 7.1 (5.2 to 9.0) | <0.001 | 4.8 (3.2 to 6.4) | <0.001 |
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| Age at diagnosis | ||||||||||||||
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| 10–14 yr | 8.0 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 12.1 | 6.8 (4.3 to 9.4) | <0.001 | 5.1 (3.1 to 7.2) | <0.001 |
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| 15–19 yr | 10.0 | 9.4 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 12.7 | 12.9 | 4.3 (2.5 to 6.2) | <0.001‡ | 5.2 (3.2 to 7.2) | <0.001 |
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| Sex | ||||||||||||||
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| Girls | 11.1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 12.4 | 13.6 | 15.7 | 15.9 | 16.2 | 9.0 (6.6 to 11.5) | <0.001 | 6.2 (4.2 to 8.2) | <0.001 |
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| Boys | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.2 (1.5 to 6.9) | 0.002 | 3.7 (1.6 to 5.8) | <0.001 |
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| Race or ethnic group | ||||||||||||||
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| Non-Hispanic white | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.3 (−0.4 to 7.1) | 0.08 | 0.6 (−2.0 to 3.4) | 0.65 |
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| Non-Hispanic black | 20.0 | 19.4 | 19.4 | 19.0 | 22.3 | 24.3 | 26.4 | 30.7 | 31.6 | 32.6 | 6.6 (4.5 to 8.7) | <0.001‡ | 6.3 (4.0 to 8.8) | <0.001 |
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| Hispanic | 13.3 | 12.6 | 13.6 | 14.5 | 16.5 | 16.3 | 16.5 | 16.6 | 17.7 | 18.2 | 6.6 (3.6 to 9.7) | <0.001 | 3.1 (0.8 to 5.4) | 0.007‡ |
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| Asian or Pacific Islander | 11.0 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 16.0 (7.0 to 25.7) | <0.001 | 8.5 (2.0 to 15.4) | 0.009 |
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| Native American | 22.6 | 17.6 | 19.6 | 24.9 | 23.2 | 25.3 | 31.8 | 33.1 | 39.0 | 46.5 | 9.5 (4.8 to 14.4) | <0.001‡ | 8.9 (5.0 to 13.1) | <0.001 |
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| Study site | ||||||||||||||
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| South Carolina | 10.0 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 15.0 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 9.2 (5.9 to 12.6) | <0.001 | 7.5 (4.9 to 10.1) | <0.001 |
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| Ohio | 11.8 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 9.7 | −2.3 (−5.8 to 1.3) | 0.20‡ | −2.6 (−6.3 to 1.2) | 0.18‡ |
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| Colorado | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.6 (1.8 to 7.5) | 0.001‡ | 5.1 (2.2 to 8.1) | <0.001 |
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| California | 13.9 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 15.2 | 17.7 | 16.9 | 17.1 | 18.9 | 18.5 | 18.9 | 4.3 (1.3 to 7.4) | 0.004 | 2.8 (0.6 to 5.1) | 0.01‡ |
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| Washington | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 15.1 (6.5 to 24.4) | <0.001 | 7.9 (3.5 to 12.4) | <0.001‡ |
Rates were based on the number of cases and the number at risk in the given year and the preceding year (2-year moving average). P values are from the GARMA linear model unless otherwise noted. The 95% confidence intervals for the yearly data are provided in Table S5 in the Supplementary Appendix.
The analysis was adjusted for age, sex, and race or ethnic group (age was adjusted for sex and race or ethnic group; sex was adjusted for age and race or ethnic group; race or ethnic group was adjusted for age and sex; and study site was adjusted for age, sex, and race or ethnic group).
P values are from linear negative binomial model, because the GARMA model was unable to estimate them.