Fig. 2.

Estimated failure probability due to a 20-y event for a temporal horizon of 30 y. The solid black and red curves show the estimated failure probability computed based on, respectively, the univariate and bivariate OR HSs, according to present climate. Failure probability (and 95% confidence bands) for projected SLR is shown with solid (and dashed) curves for 2030 under RCP 4.5 (purple) and for 2050 under RCP 8.5 (green). In cases with significant correlation between fluvial flow and coastal WL (namely, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Washington, DC), failure probability under the unreasonable assumption of independence is shown as a blue curve.