Table 1.
Main characteristics and estimates on CTC long-term efficacy of the simulation models on CTC available in the literature.
| Author, year* | Country | Simulation of de novo pathogenesis |
Polyp types simulated |
CRC stages simulated |
Yearly progression from large polyp to CRC |
CTC accuracy for large polyps |
Frequency of CTC repetition |
CTC-related CRC incidence prevention |
CTC-related CRC mortality prevention |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonnenberg et al., 1999 | USA | No | Adenomas§ | 1 stage | NA | 80% | 10 yrs | 40 | NA |
| Ladabaum et al., 2004 | USA | Yes | Small/Large | Loc/Reg/Dis | 5% | 60%–94%° | 10 yrs | 51–70 | 58–79 |
| Heitman et al., 2005 | Canada | No | Small/Large | 1 stage | NA | 71% | NA | NA | NA |
| Vijan et al., 2007 | USA | No | Low-/High-risk | Loc/Reg/Dis | NA | 82%–91%° | 5–10 yrs | 71–77 | 76–81 |
| Hassan et al., 2008 | USA | Yes | Dim./Small/Large | Loc/Reg/Dis | 3%–4% | 90% | 10 years | 62 | NA |
| Lee et al., 2010 | UK | No | Small/Large | Dukes A–D | 3% | 90% | 10 years | 77ç | 84ç |
| Knudsen et al., 2010** | USA | No | Dim./Small/Large | AJCC Stages 1–4 | NA | 84%–92% | 5 years | 48 | NA |
| Heresbach et al., 2010 | France | No | Low-/High-risk | NA | NA | NA | NA | 36–38 | 42–46 |
*
In the case of multiple publications, the most recent was included.
§
Without further classification.
°
Two different scenarios were simulated.
ç
As compared with colonoscopy. occult blood test.
**
MISCAN model