Table 2.

Total, Direct, and Conditional Indirect Effects of Best Fitting (Simple) Multilevel Moderated Mediation Models of Stress, Negative Affect, Threat Anticipation, Aberrant Salience, and Psychotic Experiences^a

	FEP		ARMS		Controls
	Adj. B (95% CI)	P	Adj. B (95% CI)	P	Adj. B (95% CI)	P
Pathways via affective disturbance
Event-related stress, negative affect, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (event-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.007 (−0.018 to 0.033)	.558	−0.002 (−0.037 to 0.032)	.900	0.002 (−0.013 to 0.018)	.789
Indirect effectb (event-related stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.035 (0.011 to 0.065)	.011	0.053 (0.035 to 0.074)	<.001	0.026 (0.015 to 0.039)	<.001
Total effect	0.042 (0.002 to 0.083)	.040	0.050 (0.016 to 0.085)	.005	0.028 (0.005 to 0.050)	.016
Activity-related stress, negative affect, and psychotic experiences
Direct effect (activity-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.053 (0.027 to 0.079)	<.001	0.061 (0.028 to 0.093)	<.001	0.015 (−0.008 to 0.037)	.198
Indirect effectb (activity-related stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.085 (0.055 to 0.122)	<.001	0.100 (0.066 to 0.138)	<.001	0.055 (0.037 to 0.077)	<.001
Total effect	0.138 (0.097 to 0.180)	<.001	0.161 (0.116 to 0.206)	<.001	0.070 (0.034 to 0.106)	<.001
Social stress, negative affect, and psychotic experiences
Direct effect (social stress → psychotic experiences)	−0.017 (−0.046 to 0.013)	.262	0.024 (0.001 to 0.046)	.039	0.012 (−0.005 to 0.029)	.155
Indirect effectb (social stress → negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.052 (0.029 to 0.079)	<.001	0.070 (0.044 to 0.100)	<.001	0.048 (0.031 to 0.068)	<.001
Total effect	0.035 (−0.009 to 0.078)	.115	0.094 (0.060 to 0.127)	<.001	0.060 (0.030 to 0.089)	<.001
Pathways via aberrant salience
Event-related stress, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (event-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.058 (0.020 to 0.095)	.003	0.055 (0.023 to 0.087)	<.001	0.030 (0.007 to 0.053)	.010
Indirect effectb (event-related stress → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	−0.015 (−0.027 to −0.004)	.011	−0.005 (−0.017 to 0.004)	.363	−0.002 (−0.006 to 0.002)	.363
Total effect	0.043 (0.002 to 0.083)	.038	0.050 (0.015 to 0.085)	.005	0.028 (0.005 to 0.050)	.015
Activity-related stress, aberrant salience, psychotic experiencesc	—		—		—
Social stress, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (social stress → psychotic experiences)	0.038 (−0.004 to 0.080)	.075	0.094 (0.064 to 0.124)	<.001	0.061 (0.033 to 0.088)	<.001
Indirect effectb (social stress → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	−0.003 (−0.015 to 0.008)	.541	−0.001 (−0.011 to 0.013)	.891	−0.001 (−0.005 to 0.006)	.793
Total effect	0.035 (−0.009 to 0.078)	.115	0.094 (0.060 to 0.127)	<.001	0.060 (0.030 to 0.089)	<.001
Negative affect, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (negative affect → psychotic experiences)
Indirect effectb (negative affect→ aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	0.026 (−0.001 to 0.046)	.095	0.017 (−0.012 to 0.049)	.443	0.017 (−0.004 to 0.030)	.220
Total effect	0.187 (0.114 to 0.346)	<.001	0.237 (0.128 to 0.346)	<.001	0.173 (0.096 to 0.251)	<.001
Threat anticipation, aberrant salience, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.144 (0.092 to 0.196)	<.001	0.117 (0.073 to 0.161)	<.001	0.091 (0.058 to 0.124)	<.001
Indirect effectb (threat anticipation → aberrant salience → psychotic experiences)	0.004 (−0.008 to 0.022)	.563	0.002 (−0.009 to 0.017)	.813	0.008 (0.000 to 0.021)	.124
Total effect	0.148 (0.089 to 0.208)	<.001	0.119 (0.070 to 0.167)	<.001	0.099 (0.062 to 0.137)	<.001
Pathways via threat anticipation
Event-related stress, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (event-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.029 (−0.005 to 0.064)	.093	0.034 (0.002 to 0.066)	.036	0.020 (0.000 to 0.039)	.047
Indirect effectb (event-related stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.013 (0.003 to 0.027)	.034	0.016 (0.007 to 0.027)	.003	0.008 (0.003 to 0.015)	.008
Total effect	0.042 (0.002 to 0.083)	.038	0.050 (0.015 to 0.084)	.005	0.028 (0.005 to 0.050)	.015
Activity-related stress, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (activity-related stress → psychotic experiences)	0.113 (0.078 to 0.148)	<.001	0.136 (0.098 to 0.175)	<.001	0.055 (0.025 to 0.085)	<.001
Indirect effectb (activity-related stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.025 (0.011 to 0.043)	.003	0.024 (0.011 to 0.039)	<.001	0.015 (0.007 to 0.024)	<.001
Total effect	0.138 (0.078 to 0.148)	<.001	0.160 (0.098 to 0.175)	<.001	0.070 (0.025 to 0.085)	<.001
Social stress, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (social stress → psychotic experiences)	0.020 (−0.019 to 0.059)	.320	0.075 (0.045 to 0.104)	<.001	0.050 (0.026 to 0.075)	<.001
Indirect effectb (social stress → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.015 (0.003 to 0.031)	.043	0.018 (0.008 to 0.031)	.001	0.009 (0.003 to 0.017)	.008
Total effect	0.034 (−0.009 to 0.078)	.118	0.093 (0.059 to 0.127)	<.001	0.059 (0.030 to 0.089)	<.001
Negative affect, threat anticipation, psychotic experiences
Direct effect (negative affect → psychotic experiences)	0.315 (0.239 to 0.391)	.000	0.324 (0.235 to 0.412)	.000	0.252 (0.188 to 0.316)	.000
Indirect effectb (negative affect → threat anticipation → psychotic experiences)	0.030 (0.014 to 0.053)	.002	0.015 (−0.001 to 0.033)	.072	0.019 (0.009 to 0.031)	.001
Total effect	0.345 (0.257 to 0.433)	.000	0.339 (0.250 to 0.428)	.000	0.271 (0.199 to 0.343)	.000

Note: FEP, first-episode psychosis; ARMS, at-risk mental state for psychosis; SD, standard deviation; df, degrees of freedom; CI, confidence interval; significant indirect paths (P < .05) are presented in bold.

^aAdjusted for age, gender, ethnicity, level of education, employment status, area-related stress and outsider status.

^bDifference in indirect effects across groups (Δ indirect effects).

^cModel estimation did not terminate normally.