Table 3.
Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for death in derivation cohort. Models also include fractional polynomial terms for age and body mass index
| Characteristics | Adjusted hazard ratio (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Women | Men | |
| Townsend score (5 unit increase)* | 1.13 (1.11 to 1.15) | 1.2 (1.18 to 1.21) |
| Ethnic group: | ||
| White or not recorded | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Indian | 0.89 (0.83 to 0.96) | 0.78 (0.73 to 0.83) |
| Pakistani | 0.99 (0.89 to 1.10) | 0.77 (0.70 to 0.85) |
| Bangladeshi | 0.92 (0.81 to 1.04) | 0.79 (0.71 to 0.87) |
| Other Asian | 0.82 (0.72 to 0.92) | 0.67 (0.59 to 0.75) |
| Caribbean | 0.75 (0.80 to 0.81) | 0.71 (0.66 to 0.77) |
| Black African | 0.68 (0.59 to 0.78) | 0.71 (0.63 to 0.80) |
| Chinese | 0.53 (0.42 to 0.68) | 0.64 (0.53 to 0.78) |
| Other ethnic group | 0.87 (0.80 to 0.95) | 0.75 (0.69 to 0.82) |
| Smoking status: | ||
| Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Former smoker | 1.18 (1.16 to 1.20) | 1.18 (1.16 to 1.20) |
| Light smoker | 1.79 (1.74 to 1.84) | 1.71 (1.66 to 1.76) |
| Moderate smoker | 2.07 (1.99 to 2.15) | 1.90 (1.82 to 1.98) |
| Heavy smoker | 2.29 (2.17 to 2.41) | 2.14 (2.05 to 2.24) |
| Alcohol intake (units/day): | ||
| Non-drinker | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| <1 | 0.84 (0.83 to 0.86) | 0.85 (0.83 to 0.86) |
| 1-2 | 0.82 (0.80 to 0.84) | 0.82 (0.80 to 0.84) |
| 3-6 | 0.86 (0.84 to 0.89) | 0.86 (0.84 to 0.88) |
| 7-9 | 1.21 (1.05 to 1.40) | 1.12 (1.06 to 1.18) |
| >9 | 1.46 (1.22 to 1.76) | 1.17 (1.08 to 1.27) |
| Unplanned admissions in past 12 months: | ||
| None | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 1* | 2.05 (1.99 to 2.11) | 1.99 (1.94 to 2.04) |
| 2* | 2.98 (2.85 to 3.11) | 2.87 (2.76 to 2.98) |
| ≥3* | 4.69 (4.48 to 4.91) | 4.22 (4.06 to 4.40) |
| Clinical and social characteristics : | ||
| Atrial fibrillation | 1.39 (1.37 to 1.42) | 1.28 (1.26 to 1.30) |
| Cancer* | 1.91 (1.86 to 1.96) | 2.05 (2.00 to 2.09) |
| Asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease | 1.19 (1.17 to 1.22) | 1.15 (1.13 to 1.18) |
| Lives in care home* | 1.80 (1.71 to 1.89) | 1.61 (1.52 to 1.71) |
| Congestive heart failure* | 1.66 (1.60 to 1.72) | 1.74 (1.69 to 1.79) |
| Cardiovascular disease* | 1.31 (1.28 to 1.34) | 1.25 (1.22 to 1.27) |
| Dementia* | 2.61 (2.52 to 2.71) | 2.34 (2.25 to 2.45) |
| Epilepsy | 1.22 (1.17 to 1.28) | 1.25 (1.19 to 1.30) |
| Learning disability | 1.15 (1.10 to 1.19) | 1.22 (1.16 to 1.28) |
| Leg ulcer* | 1.61 (1.55 to 1.68) | 1.66 (1.60 to 1.73) |
| Chronic liver disease or pancreatitis* | 1.61 (1.48 to 1.74) | 1.48 (1.39 to 1.58) |
| Parkinson’s disease† | 1.81 (1.73 to 1.88) | 2.16 (2.05 to 2.28) |
| Poor mobility* | 1.63 (1.59 to 1.67) | 1.59 (1.55 to 1.63) |
| Rheumatoid arthritis | 1.29 (1.25 to 1.34) | 1.19 (1.13 to 1.24) |
| Chronic kidney disease | 1.97 (1.88 to 2.07) | 1.86 (1.78 to 1.95) |
| Type 1 diabetes | 1.37 (1.28 to 1.46) | 1.30 (1.22 to 1.38) |
| Type 2 diabetes* | 1.35 (1.31 to 1.38) | 1.29 (1.26 to 1.32) |
| Venous thromboembolism | 1.19 (1.17 to 1.23) | 1.16 (1.13 to 1.19) |
| Current prescribed drugs: | ||
| Antipsychotics* | 1.61 (1.54 to 1.69) | 1.60 (1.52 to 1.68) |
| Corticosteroids* | 1.44 (1.40 to 1.48) | 1.57 (1.52 to 1.61) |
| Clinical values: | ||
| Anaemia (haemoglobin <110 g/L*) | 1.93 (1.87 to 2.00) | 2.10 (2.03 to 2.18) |
| Abnormal liver function test result‡ | 1.61 (1.52 to 1.70) | 1.67 (1.61 to 1.75) |
| High platelet count | 1.36 (1.31 to 1.42) | 1.38 (1.30 to 1.46) |
| Symptoms recorded in past 12 months: | ||
| Appetite loss | 1.30 (1.21 to 1.39) | 1.35 (1.24 to 1.48) |
| Dyspnoea* | 1.33 (1.28 to 1.37) | 1.28 (1.25 to 1.32) |
| Weight loss | 1.25 (1.20 to 1.31) | 1.24 (1.17 to 1.31) |
The model in women includes fractional polynomial terms for age (age−2 and age−2ln (age)) and body mass index (bmi−1 and bmi−5) and interactions with age for unplanned admissions, Townsend score, anaemia, abnormal liver function test result, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, cancer, dementia, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease or pancreatitis, leg ulcer, poor mobility, care home residence, dyspnoea, corticosteroids, and antipsychotics.
The model in men includes fractional polynomial terms for age (age3 and age3ln (age)) and BMI (bmi−2 and bmi−2ln(bmi)) and interactions with age for unplanned admissions, Townsend score, anaemia, abnormal liver function test result, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, heart failure, cancer, dementia, chronic kidney disease, chronic liver disease or pancreatitis, leg ulcer, poor mobility, care home residence, dyspnoea, corticosteroids, antipsychotics, and Parkinson’s disease.
*Interaction with age, hazard ratios evaluated at mean age for men and women.
†interaction with age, hazard ratios evaluated at mean age for men only.
‡γ glutamyltransferase, alanine aminotransferase, or bilirubin levels more than three times the upper limit of normal.