Table A1.

Model estimates for intervention (industry‐led badger culling) in the Somerset and Gloucestershire central areas in the first 2 years since culling began when individual explanatory factors are either added (in yellow) or removed (in blue) from three models: a simple RBCT‐like model, the baseline model which was the RBCT‐like model plus factors considered important a priori, and the final model which was the baseline model plus additional explanatory factors. Where there are notable changes in associations from the starting models, the p values are highlighted in bold font. (Final model reported in Table 4 of main body of paper)

		RBCT‐like model			Baseline model			Final model
		IRRa	95% CI	p value	IRRa	95% CI	p value	IRRa	95% CI	p value
RBCT factors: Area, herd years at risk, historic 3 year incidence	Somerset	1.012	0.879–1.165	.868	0.892	0.716–1.112	.310	0.791	0.716–0.874	<.001
	Gloucestershire	0.685	0.577–0.813	<.001	0.606	0.518–0.708	<.001	0.417	0.344–0.507	<.001
Median herd size	Somerset	1.008	0.868–1.170	.922	0.901	0.734–1.106	.319	0.804	0.732–0.884	<.001
	Gloucestershire	0.677	0.580–0.791	<.001	0.620	0.534–0.720	<.001	0.438	0.358–0.537	<.001
Proportion dairy	Somerset	1.174	0.898–1.534	.241	0.798	0.612–1.040	.095	0.710	0.588–0.858	<.001
	Gloucestershire	0.668	0.588–0.760	<.001	0.592	0.470–0.745	<.001	0.408	0.305–0.547	<.001
Distance to intervention	Somerset	0.824	0.663–1.026	.083	1.053	0.923–1.200	.442	0.957	0.847–1.081	.476
	Gloucestershire	0.616	0.507–0.749	<.001	0.690	0.639–0.746	<.001	0.508	0.417–0.619	<.001
Badger sett density	Somerset	0.976	0.860–1.107	.705	0.933	0.692–1.259	.652	0.791	0.684–0.915	.002
	Gloucestershire	0.688	0.580–0.816	<.001	0.580	0.483–0.695	<.001	0.390	0.324–0.470	<.001
Proportion RBCT	Somerset	1.004	0.865–1.165	.960	0.892	0.714–1.114	.312	0.790	0.714–0.875	<.001
	Gloucestershire	0.693	0.569–0.845	<.001	0.593	0.508–0.692	<.001	0.416	0.347–0.498	<.001
Total badgers removed historically	Somerset	0.977	0.869–1.099	.701	0.840	0.733–0.962	.012	0.848	0.728–0.988	.034
	Gloucestershire	0.622	0.501–0.774	<.001	0.511	0.415–0.631	<.001	0.514	0.442–0.598	<.001
Proportion fragmented	Somerset	0.974	0.845–1.121	.710	0.848	0.727–0.988	.034	0.840	0.733–0.962	.012
	Gloucestershire	0.658	0.530–0.816	<.001	0.514	0.442–0.598	<.001	0.511	0.415–0.631	<.001

^aIncidence rate ratio.