Table 3.

Factors predictive of all-cause mortality, inpatient admission, skilled nursing facility admission, and long-term care facility admission among Medicare beneficiaries between 2001 and 2007 using instrumental activities of daily living

	All-cause Mortality			Inpatient admission			Skilled nursing facility admission			Long-term care facility admission
	β-coefficient	SE	p value	β-coefficient	SE	p value	β-coefficient	SE	p value	β-coefficient	SE	p value
Sociodemographics
Age (reference: 65–74)
75–84	0.76	0.07	<.01	0.46	0.04	<.01	0.98	0.07	<.01	1.30	0.13	<.01
≥85	1.47	0.09	<.01	0.80	0.06	<.01	1.45	0.09	<.01	2.12	0.14	<.01
Sex (reference: female)
Male	0.55	0.07	<.01	0.15	0.04	<.01
Race/Ethnicity (reference: non-Hispanic white)
Non-Hispanic black	0.09	0.11	0.43	−0.17	0.07	0.02	−0.12	0.12	0.32	−0.30	0.18	0.09
Hispanic	−0.37	0.16	0.02	−0.21	0.09	0.02	−0.91	0.19	<.01	−0.91	0.27	<.01
Other	−0.27	0.20	0.17	−0.55	0.12	<.01	−0.70	0.22	<.01	−1.16	0.38	<.01
Education (reference: Some college and above)
Less than high school	0.37	0.08	<.01	0.12	0.05	0.01				0.28	0.11	0.01
High school graduate	0.27	0.08	<.01	0.04	0.05	0.34				0.23	0.11	0.04
Living arrangement (reference: Lives with spouse)
Lives alone	0.22	0.07	<.01				0.47	0.07	<.01	0.73	0.11	<.01
Lives with children	0.30	0.11	<.01				0.15	0.11	0.17	−0.08	0.17	0.64
Lives with others	0.21	0.14	0.15				0.55	0.13	<.01	0.51	0.20	<.01
Medicare and Medicaid dual enrollee (reference: Medicare only)	0.29	0.10	<.01	0.25	0.06	<.01	0.34	0.09	<.01	0.49	0.13	<.01
Proxy responded (reference: no)				−0.16	0.08	0.04
Non-urban setting (reference: urban setting)	0.17	0.07	0.01	0.17	0.04	<.01	0.16	0.07	0.02
Presence of self-reported health conditions (reference: no)
Alzheimer’s disease	0.78	0.14	<.01	0.37	0.13	<.01	0.58	0.15	<.01	1.27	0.17	<.01
Amputation				0.66	0.19	<.01
Broken hip	0.28	0.13	0.04	0.29	0.10	<.01	0.46	0.13	<.01
Cancer	0.53	0.07	<.01	0.15	0.05	<.01
Chronic heart failure	0.45	0.11	<.01							0.37	0.15	0.02
Complete or partial paralysis										0.84	0.19	<.01
Diabetes type 1, 2, or other or high blood sugar				0.15	0.05	<.01	0.29	0.08	<.01
Emphysema/asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease	0.22	0.08	<.01	0.29	0.05	<.01
Heart valve disease				0.17	0.06	<.01
Hypertension				0.16	0.04	<.01
Incontinence dialysis, or catheterization				0.17	0.04	<.01	0.19	0.07	<.01	0.19	0.10	0.04
Mental or psychiatric disorder										0.92	0.40	0.02
Myocardial infarction	0.27	0.08	<.01	0.26	0.06	<.01	0.23	0.08	<.01
Non-rheumatoid arthritis				0.17	0.04	<.01
Parkinson’s disease							0.49	0.20	0.01	0.66	0.24	<.01
Rheumatoid arthritis				0.14	0.06	0.03
Stroke or brain hemorrhage	0.31	0.08	<.01	0.29	0.06	<.01	0.28	0.09	<.01
Impairments (reference: no)
Severe vision impairment or no usable vision	0.26	0.10	<.01	0.30	0.07	<.01
Behavior
Smoking (reference: non-smoker)
Ever smoked	0.01	0.04	0.93	0.01	0.03	0.92	−0.12	0.05	<.01	−0.25	0.07	<.01
Current smoker	0.35	0.06	<.01	0.17	0.04	<.01	0.26	0.06	<.01	0.44	0.10	<.01
Function
Instrumental Activity of Daily Living Stage (reference: 0)
I	0.66	0.09	<.01	0.43	0.05	<.01	0.61	0.08	<.01	0.47	0.13	<.01
II	1.08	0.10	<.01	0.66	0.07	<.01	1.11	0.10	<.01	1.02	0.14	<.01
III	0.91	0.09	<.01	0.46	0.07	<.01	0.78	0.10	<.01	1.08	0.13	<.01
IV	1.53	0.16	<.01	0.50	0.14	<.01	0.67	0.18	<.01	1.08	0.22	<.01

	All-cause Mortality		Inpatient admission		Skilled nursing facility admission		Long-term care facility admission
	Development cohort	Validation cohort	Development cohort	Validation cohort	Development cohort	Validation cohort	Development cohort	Validation cohort
C-statistics	0.781	0.786	0.673	0.666	0.751	0.747	0.825	0.802

SE = Standard error