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. 2017 Sep 26;7:12324. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12415-2

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Transmission distance. (a) Probability distribution of transmission distance in ‘other settings’ as estimated by model M5 for the two influenza waves and by model M1 for both waves combined together (results separated by wave for M1 are reported in Supplementary Information). Note that the transmission distance depends on both kernel function and population density (which is responsible for the bumps in the curves). The curves were obtained by averaging over 100 simulations run by using median values of the posterior distributions of model parameters; distances have been grouped in 1 km intervals and displayed at the superior limit of the intervals, so that for instance 1 on the x-axis corresponds to secondary infections occurring between 0 km (e.g., infection between members of the same household) and 1 km. (b) Probability distribution of transmission distance (i.e., accounting for infections occurring in all settings).