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. 2017 Sep 26;7:12324. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-12415-2

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© The Author(s) 2017

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Spatiotemporal dynamics of 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in England. (a) Estimated attack rate (mean and 95%CI) by region of England at the end of the two epidemic waves as resulting from model M5. Abbreviations used are: Lon, London; WMid, West Midlands; EMid, East Midlands; NW, North West; NE, North East; SW, South West; SE, South East; EEng, East of England; Y&H, Yorkshire & Humber. (b) Estimated attack rate by age (mean and 95%CI) in London and in all other England regions at the end of the first wave and at the end of the second wave as resulting from model M5. (c) Weekly incidence of new reported ILI cases in the UK¹² and weekly incidence of new infections estimated by simulating the calibrated model M5 (mean and 95%CI) for England. Note that the comparison can be considered representative for the timing of the epidemic only, and not for the absolute magnitude of incidence, as: i) ILI cases refer to the entire UK, and ii) they are affected by underreporting (which was estimated to be remarkably lower during the first epidemic wave^13,38, than in the second one). (d) Weekly incidence of new infections in London and in all other regions of England (grouped together) as estimated by model M5 (mean and 95%CI).