Table 1.
Estimated DIC scores and transmission distances.
| Model name | Brief description of the model and hypotheses | Number of free parameters | DIC | Mean transmission distance in ‘other settings’ (and SD)† | Mean transmission distance (and SD)† |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Classic model based on pre-pandemic knowledge | 5 | 434.8 | w1: 11.4 km (20.3) w2: 10.8 km (19.9) | w1: 6.5 km (16.3) w2: 5.7 km (15.5) |
| M2 | Transmission distance might be different from what was inferred from commuting data | 6 | 426.1 | w1: 2.2 km (1.7) w2: 2.2 km (1.6) | w1: 1.5 km (4.1) w2: 1.9 km (5.9) |
| M3 | Transmission distance might be different from what was inferred from commuting data; virus transmissibility might be different in the two waves | 7 | 454.0 | w1: 2.1 km (0.9) w2: 2.1 km (0.8) | w1: 1.4 km (5.4) w2: 1.9 km (6.8) |
| M4 | Transmission distance might be different from what was inferred from commuting data; import of cases might be larger in the second wave | 7 | 438.5 | w1: 2.1 km (0.6) w2: 2.1 km (0.7) | w1: 1.5 km (2.9) w2: 1.8 km (5.9) |
| M5 | Transmission distance might be different from what was inferred from commuting data and might be different in the two waves | 7 | 390.9 | w1: 2.1 km (0.7) w2: 10.0 km (29.1) | w1: 1.4 km (3.8) w2: 5.3 km (20.7) |
†Values refer to the first (w1) and second (w2) pandemic waves.