Table 4.
Comparison between random versus sequential selections of IUs for implementing delivery of annual MDAs
| Random | Sequential | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95% EP Th | WHO 1% | 95% EP Th | WHO 1% | |
| Angola | 2032 | 2020 | 2032 | 2020 |
| Benin | 2028 | 2019 | 2023 | 2018 |
| Burkina Faso | 2032 | 2022 | 2031 | 2018 |
| Cameroon | 2033 | 2023 | 2029 | 2018 |
| Central African Republic | 2033 | 2022 | 2033 | 2022 |
| Chad | 2033 | 2022 | 2033 | 2022 |
| Comoros | 2023 | 2010 | 2023 | 2010 |
| Congo | 2033 | 2022 | 2032 | 2020 |
| Cote d’Ivoire | 2029 | 2018 | 2028 | 2018 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 2032 | 2021 | 2032 | 2021 |
| Djibouti | 2031 | 2021 | 2031 | 2021 |
| Egypt | 2020 | 2004 | 2019 | 2004 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 2033 | 2021 | 2033 | 2021 |
| Ethiopia | 2030 | 2020 | 2028 | 2017 |
| Gabon | 2033 | 2022 | 2033 | 2022 |
| Ghana | 2020 | 2017 | 2019 | 2017 |
| Guinea | 2031 | 2021 | 2032 | 2021 |
| Guinea Bissau | 2034 | 2018 | 2031 | 2018 |
| Kenya | 2028 | 2021 | 2025 | 2018 |
| Liberia | 2032 | 2021 | 2030 | 2018 |
| Madagascar | 2028 | 2021 | 2026 | 2019 |
| Malawi | 2033 | 2020 | 2030 | 2018 |
| Mali | 2032 | 2020 | 2030 | 2018 |
| Mozambique | 2034 | 2022 | 2032 | 2020 |
| Niger | 2027 | 2018 | 2024 | 2017 |
| Nigeria | 2034 | 2023 | 2032 | 2019 |
| Senegal | 2033 | 2020 | 2034 | 2019 |
| Sierra Leone | 2026 | 2015 | 2026 | 2015 |
| South Sudan | 2031 | 2020 | 2031 | 2020 |
| Sudan | 2035 | 2026 | 2034 | 2024 |
| Tanzania | 2034 | 2024 | 2031 | 2018 |
| The Gambia | 2033 | 2022 | 2033 | 2022 |
| Togo | 2016 | 2006 | 2016 | 2006 |
| Uganda | 2033 | 2023 | 2031 | 2019 |
| Zambia | 2033 | 2022 | 2033 | 2022 |
| Zimbabwe | 2033 | 2020 | 2033 | 2021 |
The elimination years shown represent the calendar year when 100% of IUs are predicted to have achieved elimination. For each method, the elimination years were calculated for the model-generated site-specific 95% elimination probability thresholds (EP Th) as well as for the WHO 1% threshold. The results are for the current MDA plus supplemental VC coverages (i.e., for the MDA1 intervention scenario). The sub-Saharan countries not implementing MDA as of 2015 were assumed to start MDA in 2016