Table 5. Summary of BN model performance.

Model performance is assessed at different predictive thresholds with both calibration (entire dataset) and validation (4-fold cross validation) results presented.

Metric	Hylurgus ligniperda				Hylastes ater				Arhopalus ferus
Logarithmic loss	0.244				0.074				0.068
Quadratic loss	0.148				0.035				0.038
Spherical payoff	0.918				0.982				0.979
Gini coefficient	0.737				0.738				0.915
Area under ROC	0.870				0.868				0.958
Model threshold predicting no flight	50	90	95	99	50	90	95	99	50	90	95	99
Calibration
Type I error rate (%)	3	31	39	56	0	5	8	30	1	5	9	15
Type II error rate (%)	73	12	6	2	100	48	38	12	59	23	14	6
Total error rate (%)	10	29	35	50	2	6	8	29	3	6	9	14
Validation
Average type I error rate (%)	2	30	37	55	<1	3	10	37	<1	6	9	17
Average type II error rate (%)	80	17	10	4	100	81	51	22	71	30	20	10
Average total error rate (%)	10	28	35	49	2	5	11	36	3	6	10	17