Table 2.
Data, methods, and results of climate analysis for each country/region
| Country | Spatial scale | Climate data used | Malaria constrained by temperature (assessed using CSMT) | Baseline period | Intervention period | Type of analysis | Results* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanzania | District, region, country | ENACTS rainfall and ENACTS temperature | Yes | 1995–1999 | 2000–2010 | WASP, temperature anomaly analysis | Climate likely to have influenced the decline in malaria in the first half of the intervention period (2000–2005) relative to the baseline but not the second half—2006–2010 relative to the first. Base line period includes 1997/1998 El Niño |
| Zanzibar | District, Island | ENACTS rainfall and ENACTS temperature | No | 1995–1999 | 2000–2010 | WASP | Climate likely to have influenced the decline in malaria in the first half of the intervention period (2000–2005) relative to the baseline but not the second—2006–2010. Base line period includes 1997/19988 El Niño |
| Rwanda | District, region, country | ENACTS rainfall and ENACTS temperature | Yes | 1996–2000 | 2001–2010 | WASP, temperature anomaly analysis | The Rwanda country WASP indicates that the malaria baseline period of 1996–2000 was dominated by the impact of the 1997/1998 El Nino. However, drought in 1999 suggests that no major difference between baseline and intervention period. |
| Ethiopia | Climate regions, District, region, country | ENACTS rainfall and ENACTS temperature | Yes | 2000–2005 | 2006–2011 | WASP, temperature anomaly analysis | Climate suitability for malaria is higher after intervention period relative to baseline. El Nino impact varies across country. |
| Senegal | Country | ENACTS and CHIRPS rainfall and REANALYSIS temperature | No | 2005–2010 | 2010–2015 | Time series rainfall and temperature anomaly analysis | Climate suitability for malaria is higher during intervention period relative to baseline. Long-term wetting trend. |
| Mali | District, region, country | ENACTS rainfall and ENACTS temperature | No | 1990–2005 | 2006–2012 | WASP and temperature anomaly analysis | Climate suitability for malaria is higher during intervention period relative to baseline. Long-term wetting trend. |
| Angola | Country | CHIRPS rainfall and REANALYSIS temperature | Yes | 2003–2005 | 2006–2011 | WASP and temperature anomaly analysis | No clear change in rainfall between baseline and intervention period. Clear warming during period of intervention. |
| Malawi | Country | CHIRPS rainfall (WASP) and REANALYSIS temperature | Yes | 1990–1999 | 2000–2010 | WASP and temperature anomaly analysis | Climate suitability for malaria is similar during intervention period and baseline. |
| Uganda | Country | CHIRPS rainfall and REANALYSIS temperature | Yes | 1990–1999 | 2000–2011 | WASP and temperature anomaly analysis | Climate suitability for malaria is lower during intervention period than during baseline. |
| Mozambique | Country | CHIRPS rainfall and REANALYSIS temperature | No | 1993–2002 | 2003–2011 | WASP and temperature anomaly analysis | Climate suitability for malaria is similar during intervention period and baseline. |
CSMT = Climate Suitability for Malaria Transmission; ENACTS = Enhanced National Climate Services products; WASP = Weighted Anomaly Standardized Precipitation; CHIRPS = Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station Data.
*
Countries showed general warming trend over the last 30 years using REANALYSIS temperature data.