Table 3. Model parameter estimates, diagnostics and risk reclassification measures.

	Odds Ratio	P	Lower 95%CI	Upper 95% CI
Age (years)	1.026	0.001	1.011	1.042
CCI: FP 0.5	0.232	0.032	0.061	0.882
CCI: FP 3	23.086	0.000	8.356	63.784
Cirrhosis	3.259	0.008	1.371	7.750
Lactate	1.201	0.000	1.120	1.289
Year 2	1.058	0.885	0.494	2.266
Year 3	0.639	0.214	0.315	1.296
Year 4	0.920	0.809	0.467	1.813
Year 5	0.433	0.016	0.220	0.854
Year 6	0.407	0.016	0.196	0.848
Year 7	0.482	0.114	0.195	1.191
Model diagnostics
Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic	0.770
AUC-ROC	0.740(0.675, 0.777)
	Estimate	P	Lower 95%CI	Upper 95% CI
NRI(>0)
Event	-0.186		-0.316	-0.026
Non-event	0.604		0.467	0.657
Overall	0.418		0.185	0.587
IDI
Event	0.031		0.009	0.066
Non-event	0.008		0.002	0.018
Overall	0.040		0.0120	0.084
AUC-ROC difference	0.033	0.031	0.008	0.065

CCI, Charlson comorbidity index. FP, fractional polynomial. HR, heart rate. H-L, Hosmer-Lemeshow

AUC-ROC, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. diff, difference (model with and without lactate). NRI(>0), category free net reclassification index. IDI, integrated discrimination improvement index.