Table 1. Model selection of transmission scenarios.

Model	Description	WAIC	ΔWAIC	WBIC	ΔWBIC
A	Reactivation and re-infection	22156.2	13.0	22211.3	13.7
B	No re-infection	22155.5	12.3	22209.4	11.8
C	No reactivation	22363.6	220.4	22396.9	199.3
D	Reactivation/re-infection not infectious	22215.3	72.1	22247.9	36.6
E	Multiple reactivations/re-infections	22144.0	0.7	22197.6	0
F	Multiple reactivations and no re-infection	22143.2	0	22198.4	0.8
G	Multiple re-infections and no reactivation	22364.4	221.2	22396.8	199.2

For each of seven model scenarios we report the WAIC, a measure of predictive performance, and WBIC, a measure for the most likely model generating the data. Also shown are the WAIC and WBIC differences with the best fitting model. Models E-G contain the possibility of multiple reactivation/re-infection events in persons with increased antibody concentrations (the B compartment; cf. Fig 2).