Table 2. Parameter estimates of the transmission model.

Parameter	Description	Median	95%CrI
β1	Transmissibility of primary infection	0.0019	0.000081—0.0089
β2	Transmissibility of re-infection/reactivation	0.042	0.035—0.049
z	Relative susceptibility for re-infection	0.32	0.017—0.84
${\rho }_{\left[0,20\right)}^{♀}$	Reactivation rate in 0-20 year old females (yr−1)	0.013	0.0042—0.021
${\rho }_{\left[20,50\right)}^{♀}$	Reactivation rate in 20-50 year old females (yr−1)	0.021	0.013—0.029
${\rho }_{\left[50,80\right)}^{♀}$	Reactivation rate in 50-80 year old females (yr−1)	0.028	0.017—0.040
${\rho }_{\left[0,20\right)}^{♂}$	Reactivation rate in 0-20 year old males (yr−1)	0.0054	0.0035—0.013
${\rho }_{\left[20,50\right)}^{♂}$	Reactivation rate in 20-50 year old males (yr−1)	0.011	0.0035—0.018
${\rho }_{\left[50,80\right)}^{♂}$	Reactivation rate in 50-80 year old males (yr−1)	0.013	0.0043—0.021
μρ	Hyperparameter for the reactivation rate (mean)	0.015	0.0047—0.027
σρ	Hyperparameter for the reactivation rate (sd)	0.010	0.0050—0.028

Parameters estimates (represented by posterior medians with 95% credible intervals) are shown of the transmission model with reactivation and re-infection in the B compartment (model E). This model gives the best fit to the data, as judged by WBIC and WAIC (Table 1). For all parameters the potential scale reduction factor Q is close to 1 (0.999 < Q < 1.001), and effective sample sizes of the parameters n_eff range from 3596 (β₁) to 4457 (μ_ρ).