. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2018 Nov 1.

Published in final edited form as: Med Decis Making. 2017 May 31;37(8):905–913. doi: 10.1177/0272989X17711913

Table 3.

Benefit and harm of salvage treatment at PSA recurrence by subgroups in the Johns Hopkins population. Benefit is the reduction due to immediate salvage treatment in the cumulative incidence of metastasis by 10 years after PSA recurrence; probability of overtreatment is the fraction of PSA recurrent cases that would not have reached the point of metastasis within their lifetimes. Also reported is the cumulative incidence of metastasis with and without ST at 10 years. Estimates are based on simulation from the marginal structural model.

	CIM at 10 years		Benefit at 10 years	Probability of over-treatment
	No ST	ST	Benefit at 10 years	Probability of over-treatment
All	.43	.23	0.20	0.31
Gleason
6	.15	.07	0.08	0.62
3+4	.37	.18	0.19	0.33
4+3	.56	.31	0.25	0.18
>7	.67	.39	0.28	0.13
Time from RP to PSA-R
≤ 3 years	.55	.30	0.25	0.19
> 3 years	.30	.14	0.16	0.45
Age at PSA-R
<70 years	.48	.26	0.22	0.25
≥ 70 years	.29	.14	0.15	0.53
Low risk groups
Gleason score ≤6 and >3 years from RP to PSA-R	.10	.04	0.06	0.71
Gleason score ≤6 and age ≥ 70 years	.11	.05	0.06	0.79

Abbreviations: PSA=prostate specific antigen; RP=radical prostatectomy; PSA-R=PSA recurrence; CIM=cumulative incidence of metastasis