Table 3.
Results of hot spots analysis on dengue incidences, Sri Lanka in 2012–2016.
| GiZScores | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | Prediction for 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| >1.50 Standard Deviation | Colombo Gampaha Ratnapura | Colombo | Colombo | Colombo Jaffna | Colombo | Colombo Jaffna |
| 0.50~1.50 Standard Deviation | Kalutara | Badulla | Badulla | Ampara | Badulla | Ampara |
| Kegalle | Kalutara | Gampaha | Badulla | Galle | Batticaloa | |
| Kurunegala | Kurunegala | Jaffna | Batticaloa | Gampaha | Gampaha | |
| Matara | Mannar | Ratnapura | Jaffna | |||
| Puttalam | Ratnapura | Kalutara | ||||
| Kandy | ||||||
| Kegalle | ||||||
| −0.50 ∼ 0.50 Standard Deviation | Ampara | Ampara | Ampara | Galle | Ampara | Anuradhapura |
| Batticaloa | Batticaloa | Batticaloa | Gampaha | Kurunegala | Badulla | |
| Galle | Galle | Kalutara | Kalutara | Mannar | Galle | |
| Jaffna | Gampaha | Kandy | Kandy | Matale | Kalutara | |
| Kandy | Jaffna | Kegalle | Kegalle | Matara | Kandy | |
| Mannar | Kandy | Kurunegala | Mannar | Mullaitivu | Kegalle | |
| Kegalle | Mullaitivu | Mullaitivu | Ratnapura | Kurunegala | ||
| Matale | Nuwara Eliya | Puttalam | Trincomalee | Mannar | ||
| Mullaitivu | Polonnaruwa | Trincomalee | Vavuniya | Mullaitivu | ||
| Polonnaruwa | Trincomalee | Vavuniya | Polonnaruwa | |||
| Puttalam | Ratnapura | |||||
| Ratnapura | Trincomalee | |||||
| Trincomalee | ||||||
| <−0.50 Standard Deviation | Anuradhapura | Anuradhapura | Anuradhapura | Anuradhapura | Anuradhapura | Kilinochchi |
| Badulla | Hambantota | Galle | Hambantota | Batticaloa | Hambantota | |
| Hambantota | Kilinochchi | Hambantota | Kilinochchi | Hambantota | Matale | |
| Kilinochch | Mannar | Kilinochchi | Kurunegala | Kilinochchi | Matara | |
| Matale | Matara | Matale | Matale | Moneragala | Moneragala | |
| Moneragala | Moneragala | Matara | Matara | Nuwara Eliya | Nuwara Eliya | |
| Mullaitivu | Nuwara Eliya | Moneragala | Moneragala | Polonnaruwa | Puttalam | |
| Nuwara Eliya | Vavuniya | Puttalam | Nuwara Eliya | Puttalam | Vavuniya | |
| Polonnaruwa | Vavuniya | Polonnaruwa | ||||
| Trincomalee | ||||||
| Vavuniya |
Hot and cold spots were identified according to dengue incidences and climatic factors in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016. Getis–OrdG i * statistic was used to detect hot spots of dengue epidemic in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016. High GiZscores are associated with hot spots, and low GiZscores are associated with cold spots. Hot spots were mainly located in west coast of Sri Lanka near Colombo. The hot spots tended to shift eastward to the east coast of Sri Lanka, and northward to Jaffna. Cold spots were mainly distributed in the southern area surrounding the Moneragala district, and the mid-northern area adjacent to the Anuradhapura district. The last column is prediction for hot spots and cold spots of 2016 with the predicted dengue incidences in Fig. 1 for 2016.