Figure 2.

Visualization of outcome space for sepsis model. Panels A and B display outcome spaces for untreated patients with low environmental toxicity (toxicity=1) and high environmental toxicity (toxicity=10) respectively. Panels C and D display outcome spaces for patients treated with antibiotics with low environmental toxicity (toxicity=1) and high environmental toxicity (toxicity=10) respectively. Each point represents 4000 in silico patients (40 injury sizes, each with 100 stochastic replicates). Points are color-coded based on the outcomes generated. Blue points represent simulations that healed under all circumstances. These points are distributed in regions of space where host resilience is high and the bacterial virulence is low (lower invasiveness and lower toxigenesis). Red points represent simulations that always died from overwhelming infection; these points are distributed in regions of high bacterial virulence (higher values for invasiveness and toxigenesis). Black points represent simulations that either died from overwhelming infection or healed completely and mark the boundary between simulations that always heal and simulations always die from infection. Pink points represent simulations which either died from overwhelming infection or hyperinflammatory system failure; these points are found primarily in the simulations that were treated with antibiotics and had low values for environmental toxicity and host resilience. Green points represent the Clinically Relevant simulations as these parameter sets lead to all possible outcomes; these points are distributed in regions of low to middle values of the host resilience parameter and moderately virulent infections. For all classes of simulation, the final outcomes are primarily dependent on the host resilience and microbial virulence parameters and have a secondary dependence on environmental toxicity.