Table 3.

Test Performance in Validation Cohort at 3 Years of Follow Up

Predicted Cohort			Performance Characteristics
Population	N	Baseline 3-yr DRFS	% Predicted Rx Sensitive	% NPV (DRFS)	% PPV	% ARR
All Patients	198	79 (74–85)	28	92 (85 – 100)	25 (18 – 33)	18 (6 – 28)
ER+	124	89 (83–95)	30	97 (91 – 100)	14 (6 – 21)	11 (0.1 – 21)
ER−	74	64 (53–76)	26	83 (68 – 100)	43 (28 – 55)	26 (4 – 48)

Estimates of negative predictive value (NPV), i.e. 3-year distant relapse-free survival (DRFS), positive predictive value (PPV) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) of predicted treatment (Rx) sensitive patients compared to predicted treatment-insensitive patients at 3 years (median) follow up (95% confidence interval bounds in parentheses). The results are shown for all patients and for relevant subsets according to positive (ER+) or negative (ER−) pathological estrogen receptor status of the tumor.