Figure 2. Overall prediction and estimation performance.

(a–c) Reported versus true (simulated) sound-source angle for an example subject for: (a) estimations from the control task; (b) predictions from the dynamic task (light gray points indicate change-point trials, on which the probe location was, by design, unpredictable); and (c) estimations from the dynamic task, including all trials. (d–f) Population summaries, plotted as in (a–c), with per-subject median values shown in black and the median of medians shown in red (n=29 subjects). For the dynamic tasks, median values were calculated in sliding 20° windows. Non-change-point trials were excluded from the predictions in (e). Note that the subjects’ perceptual reports (d and f) were biased slightly towards straight ahead at the far periphery. This bias, which likely reflected learned expectations that sounds were only played in the frontal plane, is accounted for in later analyses (β₅ and β₆ in Eq. 5). (g–i) STD of the perceptual errors from the dynamic task plotted versus the STD of: (g) the perceptual errors from the control task; (h) the prediction errors from the dynamic task; or (i) the expected STD of the perceptual errors, computed from the optimal, reliability-weighted combination of the control perceptual errors and the dynamic prediction errors. Points in g–i represent data from individual subjects. Prediction and perceptual errors were computed with respect to the simulated location of the probe sound.