Skip to main content
. 2017 Sep 9;6:e29820. doi: 10.7554/eLife.29820

Figure 5. Sensitivity to reporting and microcephaly risk in Feira de Santana (FSA).

Figure 5.

(A) The observation rate (OR) can be expressed as the product of the proportion of cases that are symptomatic (0.18 [Duffy et al., 2009]), with the proportion of symptomatic that seek medical attention, and the proportion of symptomatic that upon medical attention get correctly diagnosed with Zika. In the white area the expected number of notified cases is the range obtained from fitting FSA case data (OR = 0.0039, 95% CI [0.0038–0.0041], Figure 3). (B) Expected number of cases of microcephaly (MC) for theoretical ranges of birth rate (per 1000 females) and risk of MC assuming 65% exposure of all pregnancies as estimated by our model for 2015 in FSA. (C) Expected number of MC per 100,000 individuals under the same conditions as in B. The symbols in B and C represent the total confirmed MC cases (21, red diamond), and the 21 MC plus 3 fetal deaths with confirmed Zika infection (24, white circle); the dashed horizontal line marks the number of births for FSA in 2015, and the vertical lines are the estimated risks per pregnancy.