Table 2.
Input data
| Parameter | Value | Distribution | Source |
| Demographic | |||
| Age | 25–65 based on distribution | NA | National Statistics (INSEE) |
| CMU-c eligibility (social status) | 12.2% (9.8%–14.6%) | Normal | National Health Insurance Data |
| IndScr participation periodicity | Based on frequency distribution, age and social | Uniform | National Health Insurance Data |
| Initial Health State | Based on distribution | NA | Based on model prediction for a cohort of 14-year-old women |
| Transition probabilities | |||
| HR-HPV infection | 0.03–0.15 (0.03–0.18) based on distribution | Beta | Estimated to reproduce known prevalence by age11 |
| HPV-infection regression | 0.50 (0.40–0.60) | Beta | Riethmuller et al,18 Clavel et al,22 Boulanger et al,23 Beby-Defaux et al,24 Dalstein et al25 |
| HR-HPV infection→CIN1 | 0.05 (0.04–0.06) | Beta | Moscicki et al26 |
| CIN1 regression | 0.50 (0.40–0.60) | Beta | Melnikow et al,27 Nobbenhuis et al,28 Sanders and Taira,29 Van De Velde et al30 |
| CIN1→CIN2/3 | 0.12 (0.10–0.14) | Beta | Melnikow et al,27 Sanders and Taira,29 Van De Velde et al30 |
| CIN2/3 regression | 0.28 (0.22–0.33) | Beta | Melnikow et al27 |
| CIN2/3→pCIN2/3 | 0.13 (0.10–0.15) | Beta | Melnikow et al27 |
| Persistent CIN2/3→FIGO I | 0.01–0.05 (0.01–0.06) based on distribution | Beta | Estimated to reproduce known prevalence by age1 11 |
| FIGO I→FIGO II | 0.20 (0.16–0.24) | Beta | Myers et al12 |
| FIGO II→FIGO III | 0.26 (0.21–0.31) | Beta | Myers et al12 |
| FIGO III→FIGO IV | 0.36 (0.29–0.43) | Beta | Myers et al12 |
| FIGO I→Symptomatic FIGO I | 0.15 (0.12–0.18) | Beta | Myers et al12 |
| FIGO II→Symptomatic FIGO II | 0.23 (0.18–0.27) | Beta | Myers et al12 |
| FIGO III→Symptomatic FIGO III | 0.60 (0.48–0.71) | Beta | Myers et al12 |
| FIGO VI→Symptomatic FIGO IV | 0.90 (0.67–1.00) | Beta | Myers et al12 |
| 1-year cancer survival | 0.43–0.98 (0.23–0.99) by stage | Beta | SEER13 |
| 5-year cancer survival | 0.14–0.94 (0.06–0.97) by stage | Beta | SEER13 |
| 10-year cancer survival | 0.05–0.93 (0.01–0.96) by stage | Beta | SEER13 |
| Screening | |||
| Participation after invitation | 17.3% (10.0%–24.0%)%) | Uniform | Hamers et al5 |
| Participation after recall | 12.1% (5.0%–18.0%)%) | Uniform | Hamers et al5 |
| Lost to follow-up with IndScr | Based on lesion on Pap. Average 27.7% | NA | Hamers et al5 |
| Reduction in lost to follow-up with OS | 0.77 (0.08–0.77) | Uniform | OS experimentations, INCa personal communication |
| Lesions on PAP | Distribution | NA | Hamers et al.5 |
| Care per lesion | Distribution | NA | Hamers et al.5 |
| Primary Pap test (SE) | 70.0% (57.0%–80.0%) | Beta | Mustafa et al14 |
| Confirmation Pap test after HPV+ (Se) | 85.9% (76.6%–92.1%) | Beta | Bergeron et al8 |
| Primary HPV test (Se) | 94.0% (89.0%–97.0%) | Beta | Mustafa et al14 |
| Confirmation HPV test after Pap+ (Se) | 100.0% (NR) | NA | Mayrand et al16 |
| p16/Ki67 (Se) | 86.7% (81.1%–90.9%) | Beta | Ikenberg et al15 |
| Colposcopy (Se) | 100.0% (NA) | NA | Assumption |
| Primary Pap test (Sp) | 95.0% (92.0%–97.0%) | Beta | Mustafa et al14 |
| Confirmation Pap test after HPV+ (Sp) | 65.9% (63.1%–68.6%) | Beta | Bergeron et al8 |
| Primary HPV test (Sp) | 90.0% (86.0%–93.0%) | Beta | Mustafa et al14 |
| Confirmation HPV test after Pap+ (Sp) | 61.1% (NR) | NA | Mayrand et al16 |
| p16/Ki67 (Sp) | 95.2% (94.9%–95.4%) | Beta | Ikenberg et al15 |
| Colposcopy (Sp) | 100.0% (NA) | NA | Assumption |
| Conisation efficacy | 95.0% | NA | Assumption |
| Non-interpretable tests | 1.0% (1.0%–3.0%)%) | Uniform | Hamers et al5 |
| Costs (€) | |||
| Pap test (IndScr) | 47.78 (38.88–57.59) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Pap test (OS) | 49.62 (40.37–59.81) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| p16/Ki67 (IndScr) | 86.77 (70.60–104.58) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| p16/Ki67 (OS) | 88.61 (72.09–106.80) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| HPV test (IndScr) | 47.70 (75.48–97.17) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| HPV test (OS) | 49.54 (49.54–71.24) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Confirmation Pap test (IndScr) | 78.17 (63.60–94.21) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Confirmation Pap test (OS) | 49.63 (40.38–59.82) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Confirmation p16/Ki67 (IndScr) | 116.77 (78.09–99.57) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Confirmation p16/Ki67 (OS) | 88.23 (71.79–106.34) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Confirmation HPV test (IndScr) | 78.09 (63.53–94.12) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Confirmation HPV test (OS) | 49.55 (49.55–71.03) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Colposcopy | 49.82 (40.54–60.05) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| Conisation | 93.42 (76.01–112.60) | Gamma | National tariffs |
| FIGO I CC treatment | 1041.95 (847.77–1255.85) | Gamma | Dervaux et al11 |
| FIGO II CC treatment | 1818.86 (1479.90–2192.25) | Gamma | Dervaux et al11 |
| FIGO III CC treatment | 25 817.84 (21 006.43–31 117.97) | Gamma | Dervaux et al11 |
| FIGO IV CC treatment | 30 582.83 (24 883.41–36 861.16) | Gamma | Dervaux et al11 |
| Database management+invitation dispatch | 7.00 (4.00–11.00) | Gamma | Cost of invitation to colorectal OS (Heath Ministry data, personal communication) |
| Recall dispatch | 0.40 (0.40–3.25) | Gamma | 50% postal charges |
CIN, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; CC, cervical cancer; CMU, French Universal health insurance for low-income people; FIGO, Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics; HPV, human papillomavirus; HR, High Risk; IndScr, individual screening; INCa, French national cancer institute; NA, Not applicable; OS, organised screening; Pap, Papanicolaou; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.