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. 2017 Oct 7;390(10103):1676–1684. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31575-1

Table 3.

Projected numbers of people aged 65 years or older and of care home places needed by 2025 and 2035

2015 2025 2035 Total increase from 2015 to 2025 (% increase) Total increase from 2015 to 2035 (% increase)
Projected numbers of older people (thousands)
Independent 6705 7875 9451 1170 (17·5%) 2747 (41%)
Low dependency 3562 4447 5576 885 (24·8%) 2014 (56·5%)
Medium dependency 693 883 1155 190 (27·4%) 462 (66·6%)
High dependency 650 813 1050 163 (25·1%) 400 (61·5%)
Projected number of care home places needed
Medium dependency 52 335 69 772 99 068 17 438 (33·3%) 46 734 (89·3%)
High dependency 168 376 222 154 310 686 53 777 (31·9%) 142 310 (84·5%)
Total 220 711 291 926 409 754 71 215 (32·3%) 189 043 (85·7%)