Table 3.
Estimated numbers of households (in thousands) incurring tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs in India
| Total number of households (95% UR) |
Number of households (95% UR) per income quintile* |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Harvard model | ||||||
| Base case | 20 596 (16 848–24 278) | 8785 (8276–9203) | 5955 (4334–7394) | 4199 (3024–5449) | 1332 (920–1874) | 326 (197–512) |
| Improvement in DS-TB care | 19 544 (15 976–23 049) | 8357 (7864–8766) | 5638 (4104–7006) | 3979 (2864–5168) | 1261 (871–1775) | 309 (187–486) |
| Improvement in MDR-TB care | 20 475 (16 753–24 130) | 8739 (8232–9155) | 5917 (4309–7349) | 4171 (3005–5413) | 1324 (915–1860) | 324 (196–509) |
| TIME model | ||||||
| Base case | 21 926 (18 864–24 629) | 6757 (6442–7106) | 7101 (6370–7571) | 5383 (3854–6685) | 2036 (1425–2740) | 649 (493–826) |
| Improvement in DS-TB care | 20 547 (17 690–23 079) | 6381 (6065–6732) | 6635 (5950–7074) | 5027 (3602–6243) | 1898 (1329–2556) | 605 (459–771) |
| Improvement in MDR-TB care | 21 790 (18 742–24 485) | 6696 (6378–7049) | 7059 (6327–7526) | 5360 (3839–6659) | 2028 (1419–2731) | 647 (491–824) |
Catastrophic costs are defined as the sum of costs exceeding 20% of total household income. In the base case, all coverage levels and treatment success rates at the start of the study were assumed to be maintained at a constant for the period 2016–35. UR=uncertainty range. DS-TB=drug-sensitive tuberculosis. MDR-TB=multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. TIME=TB Impact Model and Estimates.
*
From poorest (quintile 1) to richest (quintile 5).