Table 4.
Estimated number of households (in thousands) incurring tuberculosis-related catastrophic costs in South Africa
| Total number of households (95% UR) |
Number of households (95% UR) per income quintile* |
|||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Harvard model | ||||||
| Base case | 1184 (1031–1348) | 925 (805–1049) | 195 (163–231) | 59 (42–78) | 5 (0–11) | 0 (0–2) |
| Expansion of access to care | 1123 (972–1279) | 882 (769–999) | 199 (165–235) | 38 (22–57) | 3 (0–7) | 0 (0–2) |
| Improvement in DS-TB care | 964 (836–1103) | 757 (657–861) | 158 (129–190) | 45 (30–61) | 4 (0–9) | 0 (0–2) |
| Improvement in MDR-TB care | 965 (837–1105) | 759 (658–865) | 157 (129–190) | 44 (30–60) | 4 (0–9) | 0 (0–2) |
| TIME model | ||||||
| Base case | 1243 (1085–1396) | 984 (864–1096) | 172 (141–205) | 81 (58–103) | 7 (1–14) | 0 (0–1) |
| Expansion of access to care | 999 (874–1130) | 802 (709–898) | 143 (113–173) | 49 (33–68) | 5 (0–12) | 0 (0–1) |
| Improvement in DS-TB care | 1152 (1005–1297) | 915 (803–1021) | 159 (129–190) | 72 (52–93) | 6 (0–14) | 0 (0–1) |
| Improvement in MDR-TB care | 1171 (1016–1320) | 934 (816–1044) | 157 (127–189) | 73 (52–94) | 6 (0–14) | 0 (0–1) |
Catastrophic costs are defined as the sum of costs exceeding 20% of total household income. In the base case, all coverage levels and treatment success rates at the start of the study were assumed to be maintained at a constant for the period 2016–35. UR=uncertainty range. DS-TB=drug-sensitive tuberculosis. MDR-TB=multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. TIME=TB Impact Model and Estimates.
*
From poorest (quintile 1) to richest (quintile 5).