Table A 3.1.

Predictions obtained from the two frequentist models for all studies in the ‘Sormani data’.

	Disability progression rate ratio, mean (95% CrI)
	Paty (1)	Paty (2)	Miligan	Johnson	Jacobs/Simon
Observed	1.00 (0.67, 1.49)	0.71 (0.45, 1.12)	1.14 (0.26, 5.03)	0.88 (0.57, 1.35)	0.63 (0.38, 1.05)
Meta-regression	0.99 (0.66, 1.48)	0.84 (0.53, 1.33)	0.93 (0.21, 4.11)	0.87 (0.56, 1.35)	0.85 (0.51, 1.42)
BRMA	0.99 (0.65, 1.50)	0.84 (0.52, 1.35)	0.87 (0.19, 4.05)	0.87 (0.55, 1.37)	0.85 (0.50, 1.45)
	Fazekas	Millefiorini	Achiron	Li (1)	Li (2)
Observed	0.70 (0.36, 1.35)	0.19 (0.05, 0.79)	0.82 (0.19, 3.50)	0.81 (0.61, 1.08)	0.73 (0.54, 0.99)
Meta-regression	0.66 (0.34, 1.29)	0.61 (0.14, 2.55)	0.63 (0.15, 2.69)	0.87 (0.65, 1.17)	0.86 (0.63, 1.17)
BRMA	0.67 (0.34, 1.33)	0.65 (0.15, 2.80)	0.66 (0.15, 2.91)	0.87 (0.64, 1.18)	0.86 (0.62, 1.18)
	Clanet	Durelli	Baumhackl	Polman	Rudick
Observed	1.00 (0.83, 1.20)	0.43 (0.24, 0.78)	1.07 (0.74, 1.57)	0.59 (0.46, 0.75)	0.79 (0.65, 0.96)
Meta-regression	1.08 (0.87, 1.34)	0.88 (0.48, 1.59)*	0.94 (0.64, 1.39)	0.58 (0.43, 0.78)	0.66 (0.55, 0.83)
BRMA	1.07 (0.88, 1.29)	0.87 (0.47, 1.62)*	0.94 (0.63, 1.41)	0.62 (0.48, 0.81)	0.66 (0.54, 0.82)
	Coles (1)	Coles (2)	Mikol	Comi (1)	Comi (2)
Observed	0.35 (0.16, 0.74)	0.38 (0.19, 0.77)	1.34 (0.88, 2.06)	0.69 (0.52, 0.93)	0.73 (0.55, 0.97)
Meta-regression	0.58 (0.27, 1.26)	0.49 (0.24, 1.01)	1.03 (0.66, 1.60)	0.66 (0.48, 0.91)	0.69 (0.51, 0.93)
BRMA	0.62 (0.28, 1.37)	0.55 (0.27, 1.15)	1.01 (0.63, 1.60)	0.77 (0.48, 0.93)	0.69 (0.50, 0.95)
	Havrdova (1)	Havrdova (2)	Sorensen	O'Connor (1)	O'Connor (2)
Observed	1.23 (0.58, 2.62)	1.04 (0.48, 2.67)	0.64 (0.32, 1.28)	1.05 (0.84, 1.31)	1.10 (0.88, 1.37)
Meta-regression	0.96 (0.45, 2.05)	0.86 (0.39, 1.88)	0.63 (0.31, 1.27)	1.06 (0.83, 1.37)	1.00 (0.78, 1.27)
BRMA	0.95 (0.44, 2.06)	0.86 (0.38, 1.90)	0.66 (0.31, 1.39)	1.06 (0.83, 1.35)	1.00 (0.78, 1.27)