Table A 3.2.

Predictions obtained from the two frequentist models for all studies in the ‘Oba data’.

Overall survival, mean (95% CrI)
	Historical trials
	FFCD-8801	NSAS-GC	JCOG-9206-1	JCOG-8801	SWOG-7804
Observed	0.84 (0.62, 1.14)	0.51 (0.29, 0.90)	0.60 (0.31, 1.18)	0.82 (0.54, 1.27)	0.93 (0.70, 1.24)
Meta-regression	0.87 (0.63, 1.19)	0.50 (0.26, 0.97)	0.65 (0.33, 1.25)	0.82 (0.53, 1.26)	0.91 (0.67, 1.24)
BRMA	0.86 (0.62, 1.19)	0.86 (0.50, 1.47)	0.85 (0.45, 1.62)	0.85 (0.55, 1.32)	0.86 (0.63, 1.17)
	EORTC-40813	Tsavaris	ICCG-1/81	ITMO	GITSG-8174
Observed	0.85 (0.64, 1.14)	0.55 (0.33, 0.89)	0.85 (0.64, 1.13)	0.98 (0.70, 1.37)	0.74 (0.53, 1.04)
Meta-regression	0.78 (0.57, 1.06)	0.58 (0.33, 1.02)	0.91 (0.67, 1.24)	0.93 (0.66, 1.31)	0.76 (0.53, 1.09)
BRMA	0.84 (0.61, 1.14)	0.85 (0.52, 1.40)	0.87 (0.63, 1.19)	0.86 (0.61, 1.20)	0.85 (0.59, 1.21)
	NCTTG-794151	ECCOG-EST3275	EORTC-40905	ICCG
Observed	1.02 (0.69, 1.51)	0.94 (0.68, 1.30)	0.93 (0.64, 1.37)	1.05 (0.74, 1.49)
Meta-regression	0.99 (0.65, 1.49)	0.93 (0.66, 1.31)	0.92 (0.62, 1.36)	1.11 (0.75, 1.66)
BRMA	0.86 (0.57, 1.29)	0.86 (0.61, 1.22)	0.86 (0.57, 1.28)	0.86 (0.60, 1.23)
	Validation trials
	A-cirera	B-CLASSIC	E-GOIM-9602	F-GOIRC
Observed	0.60 (0.39, 0.93)	0.72 (0.52, 1.00)	0.91 (0.69, 1.21)	0.90 (0.64, 1.26)
Meta-regression	0.57 (0.35, 0.93)	0.58 (0.41, 0.82)	0.92 (0.68, 1.24)	0.96 (0.67, 1.38)
BRMA	0.82 (0.52, 1.27)	0.79 (0.60, 1.05)	0.86 (0.64, 1.17)	0.87 (0.60, 1.25)