Table 4.
Effectiveness, costs, transition probabilities, base case discount rate and variations in sensitivity analysis
| Parameters | Base case | Variation in sensitivity analysis | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall survival of first-line therapy (strategy 1) | 17.6 | 15.8–19.3 | Macedo et al. (2012) [7] |
| Overall survival of second-line therapy (strategy 1) | 20.6 | 18.5–22.6 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Overall survival of supportive care (strategy 1) | 18 | 16.2–19.8 | Van Cutsem et al. (2007) [18] |
| Overall survival of first-line therapy (strategy 2) | 19.8 | 17.8–21.8 | Macedo et al. (2012) [7] |
| Overall survival of second-line therapy (strategy 2) | 20.6 | 18.5–22.6 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Overall survival of supportive care (strategy 2) | 18 | 16.2–19.8 | Van Cutsem et al. (2007) [18] |
| Cost of first-line therapy (strategy 1) | 8256.32 | 6636.06–9876.58 | Assumed |
| Cost of second-line therapy (strategy 1) | 12,984.00 | 11,600.7–14,367.3 | Assumed |
| Cost of supportive care (strategy1) | 5032.51 | 4529.26–5535.76 | Assumed |
| Cost of first-line therapy (strategy 2) | 30,805.48 | 20,664–40,946.96 | Assumed |
| Cost of second-line therapy (strategy 2) | 12,984.00 | 11,600.7–14,367.3 | Assumed |
| Cost of supportive care (strategy2) | 5032.51 | 4529.26–5535.76 | Assumed |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to first-line therapy (strategy 1) | 0.66 | 0.60–0.72 | Assumed |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to second-line therapy (strategy 1) | 0.2 | 0.18–0.22 | Hurwitz et al. (2013) [17] |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to supportive care (strategy 1) | 0.08 | 0.07–0.09 | Saltz et al. (2008) [4] |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to death (strategy 1) | 0.06 | 0.04–0.08 | Hurwitz et al. (2013) [17] |
| Probability of transition from second-line therapy to second-line therapy (strategy 1) | 0.49 | 0.45–0.53 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Probability of transition from second-line therapy to supportive care (strategy 1) | 0.45 | 0.41–0.49 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Probability of transition from second-line therapy to death (strategy 1) | 0.06 | 0.04–0.08 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Probability of transition from supportive care to supportive care (strategy 1) | 0.75 | 0.68–0.82 | Van Cutsem et al. (2007) [18] |
| Probability of transition from supportive care to death (strategy 1) | 0.25 | 0.23–0.27 | Van Cutsem et al. (2007) [18] |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to first-line therapy (strategy 1) | 0.67 | 0.61–0.73 | Assumido |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to second-line therapy (strategy 1) | 0.12 | 0.10–0.14 | Hurwitz et al. (2013) [17] |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to supportive care (strategy 1) | 0.16 | 0.14–0.18 | Saltz et al. (2008) [4] |
| Probability of transition from first-line therapy to death (strategy 1) | 0.05 | 0.04–0.06 | Hurwitz et al. (2013) [17] |
| Probability of transition from second-line therapy to second-line therapy (strategy 1) | 0.49 | 0.45–0.53 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Probability of transition from second-line therapy to supportive care (strategy 1) | 0.45 | 0.41–0.49 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Probability of transition from second-line therapy to death (strategy 1) | 0.06 | 0.04–0.08 | Tournigand et al. (2004) [12] |
| Probability of transition from supportive care to supportive care (strategy 1) | 0.75 | 0.68–0.82 | Van Cutsem et al. (2007) [18] |
| Probability of transition from supportive care to death (strategy 1) | 0.25 | 0.23–0.27 | Van Cutsem et al. (2007) [18] |
| Discount rate | 5% | 0–10% | Brasil, 2014 [13] |