Table 3.

Financial modelling showing the relationship between modelled changes in practice funding and secondary care costs^a

Practice funding type	Outcome significantly associated with capitation funding	Cost of notional increase in capitation funding, per 1000 registered patients	Modelled savings in secondary care costs associated with notional increase in capitation funding	Modelled secondary care savings: savings as a % of notional investment in primary careb
GMS practices, no MPIG	Outpatient attendances per 1000 registered patients/year	£7879c	£94c	1.2%
GMS practices, with MPIG, values for capitation funding only	n/a	£6982c	n/a	n/a
GMS practices, with MPIG, values for capitation supplement (MPIG) only	A&E attendance per 1000 registered patients Emergency admissions per 1000 registered patients/year	£5720d	£747d £5531d Total: £6278d	110.0%
PMS practices	n/a	£8443c	n/a	n/a

^aModelling was only conducted if regression model coefficients were significant, P<0.05.

^bWorked example: for the practice sample, ‘GMS practices, no MPIG’: the cost of a notional 10% change in secondary care utilisation is calculated as follows: 10% × £78.79 (mean capitation payment per registered patient) × 0.09 (B coefficient from regression model) × £132.00 (outpatient attendance per patient, reference cost) = £93.60 (or £94, to nearest whole number). The modelled saving is calculated as follows: £93.60 (cost of modelled saving in secondary care utilisation) × 100 ÷ £7879 (cost of notional 10% increase in general practice capitation funding) = 1.2%.

^cFinancial modelling based on 10% increase in capitation payments.

^dFinancial modelling based on 100% increase in capitation supplement. GMS = General Medical Services. MPIG = mean practice income guarantee. PMS = Personal Medical Services.