Table 2.
Five-year and 10-year probability of CVD events in the WPHC Indigenous sample, observed and predicted probabilities using three different Framingham models.
| Sample size n | Observed probability % (95% CI) | Predicted probability % (95% CI) |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Framingham 1991 | Framingham 2008 | Recalibrated Framingham 2008 | |||
| Five-year risk | |||||
| Total | 1448 | 10.0 (8.5–11.7) | 6.8 (6.4–7.2) | N/Aa | 10.4 (9.9–10.9) |
| Gender | |||||
| Female | 748 | 9.2 (7.3–11.6) | 5.7 (5.2–6.2) | N/Aa | 9.6 (8.9–10.3) |
| Male | 700 | 10.8 (8.7–13.4) | 8.0 (7.4–8.5) | N/Aa | 11.3 (10.5–12.1) |
| Age group, years | |||||
| 30–34 | 301 | 3.5 (1.9–6.5) | 1.3 (1.2–1.5) | N/Aa | 2.8 (2.6–3.1) |
| 35–44 | 486 | 3.9 (2.5–6.2) | 3.8 (3.4–4.1) | N/Aa | 6.2 (5.8–6.6) |
| 45–54 | 354 | 13.5 (10.3–17.6) | 8.0 (7.5–8.6) | N/Aa | 11.9 (11.1–12.7) |
| 55–74 | 307 | 21.7 (17.4–26.8) | 15.5 (14.5–16.5) | N/Aa | 22.7 (21.2–24.2) |
| Ten-year risk | |||||
| Total | 1448 | 18.7 (16.7–21.0) | 14.2 (13.5–14.8) | 12.0 (11.4–12.6) | 21.2 (20.3–22.1) |
| Gender | |||||
| Female | 748 | 17.3 (14.7–20.5) | 12.2 (11.3–13.0) | 8.9 (8.2–9.5) | 19.6 (18.3–20.8) |
| Male | 700 | 20.2 (17.2–23.6) | 16.3 (15.3–17.3) | 15.4 (14.3–16.4) | 22.9 (21.5–24.3) |
| Age group, years | |||||
| 30–34 | 301 | 8.1 (5.4–12.2) | 3.5 (3.2–3.9) | 3.3 (3.0–3.6) | 6.5 (6.0–7.0) |
| 35–44 | 486 | 12.0 (9.2–15.5) | 8.9 (8.3–9.5) | 7.3 (6.8–7.8) | 13.7 (12.8–14.5) |
| 45–54 | 354 | 24.5 (20.1–29.6) | 17.2 (16.2–18.2) | 14.1 (13.1–15.1) | 25.0 (23.6–26.5) |
| 55–74 | 307 | 32.8 (27.6–38.7) | 29.5 (28.0–31.0) | 25.6 (23.9–27.4) | 43.1 (40.9–45.3) |
a
The baseline five-year survival rate was not reported in the D’Agostino 2008 study. Therefore, we were unable to calculate five-year risk using the original Framingham 2008 model.
CVD: cardiovascular disease; WPHC: Well Person’s Health Check; CI: confidence interval; N/A: not applicable